What A Month

Chase UtleyChase Utley put his month of April into perspective Thursday in St. Louis, but what an April overall for the Phillies’ offense.

Consider:

  • They were 29th in batting average (.223), 29th in on-base percentage (.280), 29th in slugging percentage (.330) and 30th in OPS (.609).
  • They were 30th in runs per game (2.74). It was the fourth-worst showing by an offense since 2004. Only the 2012 Pirates (2.64), 2014 Padres (2.66) and 2013 Marlins (2.70) fared worse. The Phillies scored three runs last night to boost their season average to 2.75. If they maintain that pace — I’ve got to think they won’t — it would be the seventh-lowest scoring average in baseball since 1884.
  • A big problem is a lack of production in the middle of the lineup. Maybe Utley’s three-run home run last night gets him going a little bit. The Phillies’ No. 3 hitters are 29th in baseball with a .582 OPS. Their No. 4 hitters are 30th at .413 and their No. 5 hitters are 28th at .560. They are only in the top half at one spot: No. 2, a spot held mostly by Freddy Galvis (nine games) and Odubel Herrera (nine games).

How Is the Small Ball Going?

Ben Revere, Yadier MolinaThe Phillies keep bunting, but how is it going so far?

It did not work in the fifth inning last night in a 5-2 loss to the Cardinals. The Phillies had runners on first and second with no outs in a tie game when Ryne Sandberg called for Ben Revere to bunt. Revere bunted the ball in front of the plate and Yadier Molina threw out the lead runner at third for the first out.

“Why do I like it?” Sandberg said about the decision to bunt there. “First and second and no outs with a bunter up there.”

It was the fourth time this month the Phillies have bunted with runners on first and second and had the lead runner thrown out at third. It happened three times with no outs and once with one out.

The Phillies lead Major League Baseball with 12 sacrifice bunts. But as I wrote earlier this month, the numbers show bunting is counterproductive to scoring. Teams averaged 1.4023 runs with runners on first and second and no outs last season. They averaged 1.2714 runs with runners on second and third and one out.

The Phillies had a 9.3 percent better chance to score with Revere swinging away in the fifth inning. It might not seem like much, but for a team last in baseball averaging 2.73 runs per game every percentage point counts. And why play for the small inning there with five innings to go? It would have made more sense bunting in that situation if it were the eighth or ninth inning.

Let’s look closer at the Phillies’ bunt attempts this month:

According to MLB’s play-by-play, Phillies pitchers have bunted a ball in play 10 times. (This does not account for striking out on bunt attempts, balls bunted foul, etc.) They have successfully sacrificed eight times. The Phillies have scored seven runs in four of the innings their pitchers have sacrificed. That seems pretty good to me, but then I have no problem with pitchers bunting. Pitchers are bad hitters so having them bunt is almost always the right play.

The Phillies have had their hitters bunt the ball in play 10 times with at least one runner on base. (They have bunted for hits three times without a runner on base. They are 0-for-3.) Twice it seems the hitter has bunted on his own, but the other eight times have been called from the dugout. Phillies hitters successfully sacrificed just four times. The Phillies scored just three runs in those innings, which is not a good ratio.

Does bunting avoid the chance of somebody hitting into a double play? Yes, but it also hurts the team’s chances of a big inning because they have one less out to work with.

Hitters bunting with at least one runner on base:

  • Freddy Galvis (April 11): Runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 outs, 3rd inning. Force out at third base. 0 runs scored.
  • Revere (April 11): Runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 outs, 5th inning. Force out at third base. 0 runs scored.
  • Galvis (April 14): Runner on third, 1 out, 5th inning. Popped out on failed safety squeeze. 0 runs scored.
  • Chase Utley (April 15): Runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 out, 5th inning. Grounds out (not a sac attempt). 0 runs scored.
  • Cody Asche (April 24): Runners on 1st and 3rd, 1 out, 8th inning. Popped out. 0 runs scored.
  • Cesar Hernandez (April 24): Runner on 1st, 0 outs. Sacrifice bunt. 1 run scored.
  • Andres Blanco (April 26): Runner on 1st, 0 outs. Sacrifice bunt. 1 run scored.
  • Galvis (April 27): Runner on 2nd, 0 outs. Sacrifice bunt. 0 runs scored.
  • Odubel Herrera (April 28): Runners on 1st, 0 outs. Sacrifice bunt. 0 runs scored.
  • Revere (April 29): Runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 outs. Force out at third base. 1 run scored.

Preparing for Franco: Asche Works In Left Field

Cody AscheThe Phillies made a small, but significant move yesterday when Cody Asche spent part of batting practice at Busch Stadium catching fly balls in left field.

Asche could be headed there in the future, especially once the Phillies promote Triple-A Lehigh Valley third baseman Maikel Franco, who is hitting .333 (28-for-84) with 10 doubles, one triple, one home run, 11 RBIs and an .883 OPS in 19 games.

Franco’s promotion is not imminent, but it nearly is inevitable. If the Phillies promote Franco before May 15 he could become a free agent in 2020 rather than 2021, so it would be surprising to see him in Phillies pinstripes any earlier. The Phillies also might avoid Franco earning Super 2 salary arbitration status if he is promoted after the first week of July.

But whether it is next month or closer to the All-Star break or some other time, Franco is coming if he keeps hitting.

“At some point we need to make sure that Cody is prepared,” Ruben Amaro Jr. said this afternoon. “It’s no secret that Maikel is doing very well down there. We want to try to create as much versatility with our guys as we possibly can.”

Asche worked a little in left field in Spring Training but the Phillies ultimately pulled the plug because they wanted him to prepare to be the team’s everyday third baseman. But when Franco joins the team Amaro wants him playing nearly every day. Franco can play first base, but he is regarded as a finer defensive third baseman than Asche, which is why they are seeing what else Asche can do.

“He’s primarily a third baseman,” Amaro said about Franco. “That’s his best position. That’s where I think his future lies. But his future could also lie at first. Again, it’s about creating as much versatility as you possibly can, particularly with our young guys and particularly with our younger guys who can swing the bat. We’re looking for people who are going to help us offensively. The whole point is getting as many of those guys as we can on the field.”

Asche has not played in the outfield since he became a professional, so throwing him out there midseason could be a challenge. But it has happened before. The Phillies moved Placido Polanco to the outfield in 2005 after spending his entire career in the infield. They did the same in 2013 with infielder Freddy Galvis.

“He’s a pretty good athlete,” Amaro said about Asche. “If it’s something we choose to do we would have to feel comfortable. Will he be a Gold Glover if he gets a chance to go out there? No. But we’ll have to decide if he’s athletic enough to do that. We think he is.”

Franco’s arrival and Asche’s potential move to left involves other players, too.

For instance, what does this mean for left fielder Ben Revere and first baseman Ryan Howard?

Amaro said Revere can play center field and right field, if needed. Odubel Herrea could be a candidate to move to right, although Amaro said Herrera seems much more comfortable in center. And the Big Piece?

“Howard is our first baseman,” Amaro said.

Amaro said Asche is not a candidate to move to second base, despite playing 64 games there for Class A Williamsport in 2011.

“Playing second base is very difficult for someone who has not played on the right side of the field,” Amaro said. “He did it briefly, but the pivot and the process of learning that is very difficult and a lot more difficult than people think. Middle infielders are more born. They’re not developed, necessarily.”

Asche will start at third base Wednesday night against the Cardinals. That should surprise nobody. It might be some time before Franco is promoted, plus Asche needs more time to learn left field.

The Phillies also need time to figure out how the rest of the dominoes might fall.

Say What? Brown Optioned to Triple-A

Domonic BrownDomonic Brown probably had a few reasons to assume he would rejoin the Phillies tomorrow.

But instead the Phillies announced today that he has been optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after finishing his 20-day rehab assignment. It is a significant decision, considering Brown is a former National League All-Star making $2.5 million this season. If the Phillies have optioned a player in the past making that type of money it has not happened in recent memory. (The Phillies optioned Brett Myers in July 2008, but because he had five years of service time he could have rejected it.)

“Clearly, as one can imagine, if you were in the same shoes you wouldn’t be happy, either,” said Ruben Amaro Jr., who spoke with Brown directly. “I mean, I don’t blame him for not being happy. And I don’t know that he necessarily agrees with the decision, but it is our decision to make. And I do think we’re doing it in the best interest of Domonic Brown and the Phillies.”

Brown opened the season on the 15-day disabled list because of tendinitis in his left Achilles. He hit .294 (5-for-17) with one double, one home run, three RBIs and a .929 OPS in six games on a rehab assignment with Class A Clearwater. But in nine games with Lehigh Valley, he hit .139 (5-for-36) with one double, three RBIs and a .405 OPS.

Brown told Lehigh Valley reporters Sunday he would be in St. Louis on Wednesday. But Ryne Sandberg said yesterday at Busch Stadium that “from what I’ve seen I don’t know that he’s ready for Major League pitching or to come up and really give us a punch, the way that things have gone for him there.”

That is saying something because the Phillies are desperate for offense. They enter Tuesday night’s game against the Cardinals averaging 2.65 runs per game, which is the lowest average in baseball this season and the fifth-lowest average in baseball since 1900.

Outfielder Grady Sizemore and Jeff Francoeur have been sharing right field while Brown has been out. Sizemore, who hits left-handed like Brown, is hitting .133 (4-for-30) with one double, one RBI and a .328 OPS. Francoeur, who hits right-handed, is hitting .200 (11-for-55) with three doubles, two home runs, four RBIs and a .630 OPS.

“We’re not trying to hold anybody back if they’re able to help us,” Amaro said.

Brown, 27, certainly has plenty to prove this season. He hit just .235 with 22 doubles, one triple, 10 home runs, 63 RBIs and a .634 OPS in 144 games last season. His OPS ranked 139th out of 147 qualified hitters in baseball. His .640 OPS as an outfielder ranked 60th out of 64 outfielders, and his .641 OPS as a left fielder was the lowest of any left fielder since Chuck Knoblauch‘s .582 OPS for Kansas City in 2002.

“The bottom line is we think he’s a very talented player and needs to play a little better and at a higher level to be back here playing at the Major League level,” Amaro said. “He’s getting closer. I talked to Charlie (Manuel) today. He’s getting closer to having that rhythm. He hasn’t gotten there yet. We don’t think he’s very far away, but he’s got some things to work on to be a more consistent performer.

“It’s a performance-based industry and we know Domonic has the ability to do things at a very, very high level at the Major League level. We’re working to try to get him back there as soon as possible. At this stage of the game we don’t feel he’s ready to do that consistently. When he is and when he does he’ll be back.”

Is It Just Bad Luck for Utley?

Ryne Sandberg, Chase UtleyChase Utley continues to hit third for the Phillies, despite the fact he entered tonight’s series opener against the Cardinals hitting .121.

Utley’s April batting average is the third-lowest in Phillies history among hitters with 40 or more plate appearances. Bill Kelly hit .119 in April 1928. Roy Sievers hit .114 in April 1962.

“He’s just a series or two away from getting hot and getting to where he wants to be,” Ryne Sandberg said.

Utley has been hitting the ball hard throughout the month, but he has had little to show for it. Some of it is bad luck. He has a .104 batting average on balls in play, which is the second-lowest BABIP in baseball. The average Major League player this season has a .290 BABIP. As FanGraphs explains: “For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck.”

“There’s something to that,” Sandberg said. “He’s stung the ball.”

Utley has a career .302 BABIP, including a .295 mark last season and a .305 mark in 2013. So expect Utley’s numers to improve at some point. When? That’s an entirely different question.

Brown Might Not Be Back Wednesday

Domonic BrownDomonic Brown told reporters yesterday he would rejoin the Phillies on Wednesday.

Not so fast.

Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg said today at Busch Stadium that while there has been no official conversations about Brown’s status, “from what I’ve seen I don’t know that he’s ready for Major League pitching or to come up and really give us a punch the way that things have gone for him there.”

Brown has been on the 15-day disabled list since the season started because of tendinitis in his left Achilles. He has been on a rehab assignment since April 9. Once a position player begins a rehab assignment he has 20 days to be activated from the DL. His 20th day is Tuesday, which means a decision must be made by Wednesday.

Brown might have assumed he would be activated and join the Phillies. But the Phillies could activate him and option him to Triple-A.

He has hit .129 (4-for-31) with one double, two RBIs, four walks and six strikeouts in eight games with the IronPigs.

“Maybe it’s just not enough at-bats,” Sandberg said about Brown’s struggles in the Minor Leagues. “He’s had some fly ball outs. He just hasn’t connected and hasn’t hit for average, which you’d like to see.”

Asked if he would prefer Brown did not tell people he would be back before a decision had been made, Sandberg said, “Unless he’s player-GM.”

Relax: Let Phillies Prospects Move Slowly

Maikel FrancoI wrote Friday that the Phillies are in no rush to promote Maikel Franco to the big leagues, despite a hot start in Triple-A.

I explained the organization’s rationale in the story, but because fans have such little faith in the Phillies’ front office these days I received plenty of negative reaction to it.

Sure, keep playing the same old guys!

Of course they’re not. The Phillies never promote anybody!

I just don’t understand why they don’t bring up every prospect to learn on the job!

Oh, brother. I could not disagree more. Let me be clear: the Phillies’ front office deserves plenty of criticism for the current state of the team. The Phillies have one of the highest payrolls in baseball, but one of the worst teams. There is no excusing that. So criticize their amateur drafts. Question their player development. Criticize their talent evaluation at the amateur and professional levels. Question their unmovable contracts and personnel decisions. Criticize the coaching staff.

Each of those things is fair.

But if the Phillies are going to do something right this season it is going to be remaining patient with their prospects. They should not rush them to the big leagues because fans are frustrated with the product at Citizens Bank Park.

Here is why:

  1. This is a lost season. Do not forget Pat Gillick‘s assessment that the Phillies are not going to compete again until 2017 at the earliest. Despite winning two of three this weekend against the Braves, the Phillies are on pace to lose more than 100 games. 2016 might not be much better. So in what world does it make sense to start rushing prospects through the system so they can join a team headed nowhere? If you’re a Phillies fan you should want the Phillies’ prospects to take their time through the Minor League system and be promoted when they are truly ready. Every week or month they remain in the Minor Leagues is another week, month or year they could be helping the team win when it matters again. Think about it: if the Phillies had rushed Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard or Cole Hamels through the system, maybe they’re not all together during their run from 2007-11.
  2. Service time. In the case of Franco, if he is promoted before May 15 he could become eligible for free agency following the 2020 season. If he is promoted May 15 or later, he does not become eligible until after 2021. Yes, if the Phillies wait just a few weeks they could have Franco for an entire extra season — a season when the results might matter again. Now I am not saying Franco will be promoted later next month or even that he should be promoted later next month. (If the Phillies promote him after the fist week of July they could avoid his Super 2 status in salary arbitration.) I’m only saying I cannot find a single reason to promote Franco right now. To be clear: I’m not advocating the stashing of prospects in the system when they are beyond ready for a big-league promotion. I’m only saying the Phillies must be smart about it. A few extra weeks in Triple-A is not going to kill anybody.
  3. Development. I hear people say the Phillies don’t promote their prospects when they are young. They offer Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera and Giancarlo Stanton as examples of young players promoted that enjoyed immediate success in the big leagues. Of course, find me a Phillies prospect since Utley or Howard that could come close to the talent of Trout, Harper, Cabrera or Stanton. That player hasn’t existed. But while I have heard of prospects being hurt by being rushed to the big leagues, I have not heard of prospects being irreparably harmed by not being promoted to the big leagues quickly enough. Utley and Howard were not rushed. They turned out fine. If a player is going be successful at the big-league level, an extra month or two (or more) in the Minor Leagues is not going to stop that. So when I asked Phillies assistant general manager Benny Looper yesterday if the Phillies considered any of the organization’s Double-A pitching prospects to make Tuesday’s start in St. Louis over Severino Gonzalez and he said no, I had no problem with that. That extra time in the Minor Leagues might allow one of those pitchers to learn a new pitch or fine tune the ones they have. It might allow them to learn how to overcome their struggles, so when they experience them in the future they have confidence they can overcome them again. Kyle Kendrick got rushed to the big leagues in 2007. He could only throw a sinker. He had success early, but eventually hitters caught up and he had to return to the Minor Leagues before he could pitch in the big leagues again. Knowing the team is not going anywhere this season, wouldn’t it make sense for those prospects to continue to develop at a steady pace so they’re really ready when the time comes?

So while I understand the desire to watch the future this season rather than the past, think about what that might mean. If you want the Phillies to return to glory sooner rather than later it might mean sucking it up in 2015. Will we see Franco this season? I’m sure we will. Will we see Nola? It’s possible. Should they get called up ASAP? Absolutely not. They should be promoted when they are ready to experience success in the big leagues and no earlier. Because right now does not matter. 2017 and beyond does.

Lineup, Bullpen Moves Aren’t Working

Ryne Sandberg, Jeanmar GomezRyne Sandberg continues to mix and match his lineup and bullpen, hoping one day one of his combinations will work.

So far they have not.

The Lineup

Sandberg has tried 12 different lineups in 16 games, but the Phillies enter tonight’s series opener against the Braves averaging just 2.56 runs per game, which are the fewest in baseball. They are 30th in batting average with runners in scoring position (.176), 29th in on-base percentage (.270) and 28th in slugging percentage (.323). Sandberg has dropped Ryan Howard from fourth to seventh before moving him to fifth and sixth. Carlos Ruiz (zero home runs, one RBI this season) and Jeff Francoeur have hit cleanup since Howard’s demotion. In fact, if Francoeur hits cleanup tonight he will match Howard for the most appearances in the cleanup spot this season. (Raise your hand if you predicted that one.) Ben Revere has moved from first to eighth to second.  Grady Sizemore continues to start about half the team’s games, despite posting a .159 (17-for-107) batting average and .511 OPS since Aug. 8.

Domonic Brown is expected to return from the DL next week. Can the Phillies really keep both left-handed hitting outfielders?

Meanwhile, Chase Utley continues to hit third, despite having the third-lowest batting average (.120) in baseball.

In the end, it probably does not matter what the lineup is. But so far Sandberg has found none of his combinations working.

The Bullpen

Sandberg has made some curious moves in the bullpen in recent weeks. He employed Jake Diekman in a double-switch in the sixth inning April 15 in New York, but chose to have Diekman only pitch the sixth. Sandberg said he did not have Diekman start the seventh because he is the only left-hander in the bullpen and he had been pitching a lot lately. He said he wanted to save Diekman in case he needed him the following night. The problem is that he could have used him that night. Dustin McGowan replaced Diekman in the seventh and he allowed a solo homer to left-handed hitter Daniel Murphy, who was the first batter to hit in the inning. The Phillies lost, 6-5.

The Phillies lost the next night, 6-1, and Diekman was never needed.

That move is mentioned because of what happened in yesterday’s 9-1 loss. McGowan made a spot start, knowing he could pitch only three to four innings. He ran into trouble in the third, but the Phillies got nobody up in the bullpen. He then ran out of gas in the fourth, walking the bases loaded with one out. But the Phillies kept him in the game and he served up a two-run single to give the Marlins a 2-0 lead.

At that point the Phillies called in rookie Hector Neris to pitch in that high-leverage situation. Neris pitched one inning for the Phillies last season and just joined the Phillies this week. He promptly hit Marlins pitcher David Phelps with a pitch to reload the bases. Neris then allowed another single to allow two more runs to score to make it 4-0.

The game snowballed from there.

Then, interestingly, Diekman pitched the eighth inning despite having pitched Wednesday and the team trailing 8-0. His appearance stood out because of what Sandberg said last week: it’s important to conserve Diekman because he is the only left-hander in the bullpen. Meanwhile, Jeanmar Gomez, who the team touted as its long man, did not pitch until the ninth.

Gomez could have pitched the final two innings. He also could have tried to clean up McGowan’s mess in the fourth and give the Phillies a couple more innings from there. But Sandberg said he wanted to save his long man for Friday, in case he is needed. Of course, Aaron Harang pitches tonight and he has been the team’s most effective starter through three weeks.

That is twice Sandberg has said he did not use a reliever because he wanted him available for a potential scenario the next day.

“He still remains a length guy for tomorrow,” Sandberg said about Gomez. “To preserve that and have him be our length guy, that’s where he really comes into play for us.”

Perhaps Sandberg has such little faith in the offense’s ability to score that once the Phillies are down a couple runs he figures he might as well prepare for the next day’s game. But managing for the next day and not the game at hand certainly is different. It might not make a difference with this team, but it is worth noting.

O’Sullivan to DL, McGowan to Start

Sean O'SullivanPhillies right-hander Sean O’Sullivan lasted just two starts as the Phillies’ No. 5 starter.

The Phillies today placed him on the 15-day disabled list with tendinitis in his left knee. They recalled right-hander Hector Neris from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to take O’Sullivan’s place on the roster, and announced right-hander Dustin McGowan will start in O’Sullivan’s place tomorrow afternoon against the Marlins.

O’Sullivan went 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two starts.

Looking for Good News

Jesse BiddleAre you searching for some good Phillies news?

Well, a few prospects are off to good starts. Here is a look:

Triple-A Lehigh Valley

  • 3B Maikel Franco: He is hitting .323 (10-for-31) with five doubles, one triple, one home run, seven RBIs and a 1.045 OPS in seven games. Remember, he is unlikely to be promoted until mid to late May for the same reason the Cubs just promoted Kris Bryant to the big leagues: team control for an extra season. So, please, hold the, “I CANNOT BELIEVE THEY AREN’T CALLING UP FRANCO RIGHT THIS SECOND!” fits.

Double-A Reading

  • CF Roman Quinn: He is hitting .478 (11-for-23) with two doubles, two triples, one home run, three RBIs, four stolen bases and a 1.408 OPS through six games.
  • P Zach Eflin, Tom Windle and Jesse Biddle: Each pitched well in their first start of the season.

Class A Clearwater

  • C Andrew Knapp: He is hitting .343 (12-for-35) with two doubles, one triple, four RBIs and an .808 OPS.
  • P Matt Imhoff: is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA after two starts.

Class A Lakewood

  • CF Carlos Tocci: He is hitting .387 (12-for-31) with two doubles, one home run, eight RBIs and a 1.021 OPS.
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