The Phillies and Mets Are Close
The Phillies can take a four-game lead over the Mets in the National League East with a victory tonight at Citi Field. The first two games of this three-game series have been entertaining, regardless of the outcome. If these games are any indication, it could be another intereresting September.
Here is a look at how these teams match up in a few categories:
Runs per game
I just took a look at Baseball Prospectus’ daily playoff odds report, and they also have this race very close. They gave the Phillies a 44.3 percent chance to win the NL East and a 16.3 percent chance to win the NL Wild Card for a 60.6 percent chance to make the playoffs.
They gave the Mets a 45 percent chance to win the division and a 13.9 percent chance to win the wild card for a 58.9 percent chances to make the postseason.
I’m guessing the reason why the Mets have slightly better odds to win the division than the Phillies is the Mets currently have been overall pitching. But the Phillies have pitched much better recently. The Phillies have a 3.72 ERA since May 15, while the Mets have a 3.86 ERA. The Mets also lost J.J. Putz for about two months because of elbow surgery. But what could be interesting is that the Mets could have Francisco Rodriguez, Putz and Billy Wagner in their bullpen in September if everything goes according to plan.
Might not be a bad idea for the Phillies to build a big lead before then.