Victorino Makes His Case

victorino 0708.jpgShane Victorino has been knocking on doors (literally) and kissing babies (not literally) since he became one of five Final Vote candidates for the final roster spot on the National League all-star team.

Fans can vote at MLB.com until 4 p.m. Thursday.

Here is my bold prediction: Cristian Guzman will not win.

The race is between Victorino and Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval. They apparently have exchanged leads a couple times the past few days.

UPDATE (11:30 a.m.): Victorino leads Sandoval with a little more than four hours to go.

But Victorino made a strong case for himself with a game winning hit in the ninth inning tonight against the Reds.

“Is this meant to happen?” Victorino said.

We’ll find out Thursday. But even if he loses to Sandoval, he has a good chance at making the team.

Mets centerfielder Carlos Beltran will not play in the All-Star Game because of an injury. If Beltran had earned a roster spot via the player vote, Manuel would have had to take the next highest finisher on the player ballot to replace him. But because fans elected Beltran as a starter, a MLB spokesman said Wednesday that Manuel does not have to pick from the player ballots to find a replacement. That would improve Victorino’s chances.

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33 Comments

I don’t understand why for two nights in a row you PH for a hot hitting Dobbs. Well back to voting.

I don’t understand why for two nights in a row you PH for a hot hitting Dobbs. Well back to voting.

Best case scenario; Victorino wins the vote over Sandoval and Manuel flexes his muscles, naming Jayson Werth, with his 19 homers, 52 rbi’s and 58 runs, as Beltran’s replacement. Then, in the 6th inning of the all-star game, Manuel pulls two of the three starters in the outfield, leaving in Ibanez, and substitutes in Victorino and Werth. All three Phillies play the outfield for one inning before Manuel pulls Ibanez in the 7th. That, is the best case scenario.

Did anyone catch Chan Ho Park coming in from the bullpen with a sandwich board sign “Vote for Victorino” at the end of the game?!! Whata hoot!

Davegas: Couldn’t agree more about pinch hitting for Dobbs. Where’s Coste in all this? He’s a RH bat off the bench?!

Dave and Karen, one of the requirements of a PH is to be able to hit the ball. SO far this year, Coste, as much as I love him, has not been able to do this. My question is when do we get a RHB who can? We have Coste batting .245, Brunlett hitting .139, Mayberry batting .200, and Bako batting .222. It’s getting to the point that when we need a right handed PH we need to ask Rube to suit up. At this point I’d serriously consider bringing up Cairo again. He can’t be worse then this crew of hitless wonders

Coste couldn’t bat there because he had already pinch hit for Lopez when he got hurt. Either way, the Phillies bench is awful and the last two games exposed it badly. They were lucky that the top of the order came through with two outs. I think if that had gone one more inning (Lidge?) we would have lost that one.
I wonder who will go when Ibanez gets back? Probably Mayberry, and they’ll keep the .139 hitting jack-of-all-trades. I never thought that I would long for Miguel Cairo.

IF we are serriously looking to get halladay (and I mean more then fantasy and making a phone call) we should ask if they have a RHB they can throw in as well. At this point, it is almost as important as a top of the rotation starter. Without him, we won’t advance very far in the Playoffs

Fan_in_Jersualem:

why not ask if they have a lights out bullpen guy they can spare, and also a decent backup catcher? while theyre tearing up their roster we could probably ask for a utlity infielder that can make some sort of contact.

be realistic, if the jays are going to part with their star pitcher, they arent going to single handedly supply the phils with their world series ammo. you can keep thinking those things, but one team will not supply all the ingredients. to be honest, wait until the waiver deadline. thats when the phils seem to make their best moves.

Ryan, etc:
Given that we’re going to be giving the Jays a shortstop (Donald) a catcher (marson) an OF (Taylor) and at least one major league ready pitcher (drabek or Carlos) + another pitcher (Carpenter, Bastardo) they can throw in a guy they really don’t need any more. The point being, we need a right handed bat almost as much as we need a top of the rotation starter.

I think the easy solution to that would be to cut Eric Bruntlett (why hasn’t this been done yet?) and bring up Mike Cervenak, Jason Donald, or hell, even Miguel Cairo. None of them could possibly be worse than Bruntlett. And Manuel loves him because he can “field all positions” but a cursory glance at UZR shows that he can’t really field any of them well. There are plenty of internal solutions to the bench issue. Half of it is already solved now that Dobbs is hitting again. I think Mayberry will be a fine pinch hitter if Manuel just gives him more chances. With him and someone (anyone) else that’s not Bruntlett as RHBs and Stairs and Dobbs as LHBs once Ibanez gets back, the bench will be fine.

Mayberry is hitting .200. He’s not a major leaguer and in my opionion never will be. Donald is the obvious answer to the bat issue as he playes 2nd, SS, 3B (enough to fill in late with Dobbs as the backup normally). Stairs and Dobbs fill in the OF. Of course, we are probably trading Donald for a pitcher. If not Halladay then someone else. He’ll never be more then a utility guy for our team and has little value except as trade bait.

An interesting idea that’s been floated is to trade Werth and fewer prosepcts for Halladay. Though there are problems with this (Toronto wants young and cheap, Rube wants to add ML talent not trade it) it allows up to bring up Taylor and get max value for Jayson before he goes FA after next year (same idea as moving Halladay now) Okay, you can all rip me for mentioning tradig a 30 HR 100 RBI guy

fan_in_jerusalem:

ive never heard the werth idea being ‘floated.’ the phils shouldnt give away ML talent for ML talent. A team in the hunt for the playoffs rarely ever does this, unless its a case where the player is a clubhouse cancer. Mayberry will be a good player, but when your young and not getting consistent play you cant develop. hell, dobbs is over 30 and was hitting like .193 coming off the bench. once he started getting regular at bats viola! he can hit again. see the correlation?
and yes we will be giving up alot to get halladay. we shouldnt expect them to throw in a player. Look at sabbathia. the indians didnt throw in a player just because milwaukee mortgaged their farm system. pay attention to how baseball works just a little closer, and you’ll see you aren’t suggesting anything realistic.

i have no problem getting rid of Werth either — but not for Halladay. Toronto is already going to get 3 of our prospects, there isnt a point to trade a ML proven player too.

I won’t rip you f_i_j, I have no problem including Werth in a deal for Halladay. Offense is not the problem for this team, especially once Raul comes back.

I don’t see why you’re writing off Mayberry based on a sample size of 48 plate appearances and a finicky stat like batting average. First of all, he’s getting very unlucky (.217 BABIP) and he has a .511 slugging percentage. Those are things to build on. He just needs to develop a bit more plate discipline and he’ll be a solid hitter.

I mean if you’re that impatient with prospects you’re going to be calling for Taylor’s head after about a month if they trade Werth and call him up this year.

WOW, how did we go from vote Victorino to the All Star Game back to Halladay, I guess it is what makes the buzz that gets discussed, wasn’t Werth with the Jays in 02 and 03, would they want him back ? We need another Tomas Perez, I liked him, he was fun and seemed to perform off the bench. Remember those days….

Phylan, let me clarify, mayberry may be a great player for some other team who can play him every day. However, he will never have that role with the Phillies. He’ll be 4th OF at best here always. This year and next the OF is Werth, Vic and Ibanez. When/if Werth leavfes for FA then Taylor/Brown take over. When Ibanez goes after 2011 there will be someone else. This is why I dont think he’s an option for us. As you said, he needs to play every day to put up numbers. Dobbs, on the other hand, has a long history of being a good/great off the bench guy who can hit as a PH. Same story with Stairs.

So TODD, who won the bout between the Flyin’ Hawaiian and the Kung Fu Panda?

the flyin panda obviously

Just came across this on a different blog. I hope it’s true as it answers all of our needs and desires:
a toronto radio station reported that the trade was already in place. The trade was Carlos Carrasco, Dominic Brown, Tony Bastardo and Lou Marson and possibly one reliever (carpenter/escalona/kendrick possibly).

That can’t be true, that would be an amazing deal for the Phils.

F_I_J:

i cant believe anything you say. show me a link to this blog. that deal is way to incredible for the phils. they keep their top pitching prospects (DRABEK/KNAPP/SAVERY) and their top OF prospect (TAYLOR). You think the Jays scouts havent done their homework?

I’d actually say Brown is the top OF prospect, not Taylor. But otherwise, yeah, that’s probably just a rumor that got out of hand. I would love it but that is basically a huge steal for the Phils.

You would say Brown is the top OF prospect, but I doubt you watch much baseball. Everyone in the media and guys doing the farm reports will tell you that Taylor is worth way more than Brown.

ummm, Baseball America recently rated Dominic Brown as the top prospect in the Phils organization

wait are you talking about the same publication that had carrasco ranked higher than drabek? if you are, not much credibility can be given. ask any media writer, when they discuss ‘untouchables,’ Drabek and Taylor are the two that come up.

you’re the one who wrote “everyone in the media and the guys doing the farm reports” I think BA qualifies on both counts

ryanhowardisbetterthanyou, It’s all about upside. Taylor has been putting up big numbers in AA, better than Brown even, for the moment. But Brown is younger than Taylor, projects to have more power, and better plate discipline.

I’m not sure what you’ve been looking at, but virtually every credible analyst, including Ruben Amaro himself, thinks Brown is the better prospect. It was Ruben that included Brown along with Taylor on his “untouchables” list (none of whom should actually be untouchable if Halladay is at issue). And you’re disputing a source (Baseball America) that is the most widely respected prospect evaluator in baseball media. When they listed Carrasco ahead of Drabek, it was out of caution. Drabek had just come off of Tommy John surgery, and Carrasco, after his performance in the Venezuelan winter leagues, seemed major league ready. Since then, however, Drabek has shown no signs of the surgery hampering his delivery, and Carrasco has had some struggles with command and location (although I suspect he’ll be fine). This is why most recently, in their mid-season top 50 list, BA ranked Drabek at 24, far, far ahead of Carrasco. By the way, Dominic Brown appeared at 17, 6 slots ahead of Taylor and even above highly touted prospects for other teams like Matt LaPorta, Tim Beckham, and Brett Wallace. Michael Taylor is a fantastic, polished young player, and certainly the most major league ready of the two, but Dominic Brown is the better prospect, through and through.

If you doubt my credibility, feel free to read my blog at http://www.firerubenamaro.net and decide for yourself. Or you could just call me a bandwagon fan again, and continue to entirely ignore both the best scouting media and your team’s own scouts and GMs.

And in any case, you’re the one who suggested the Phillies couldn’t afford to shell out 2 – 2.5 MM (a 4 MM prorated contract) for a fifth starter and take on the rest of Halladay’s salary for this year (roughly 7 million, since it’s a half a season of a 14.25 million dollar contract) and his very reasonable salary next year, 15.75 million. The Philadelphia Phillies, who are coming off of a World Championship, raking in record merchandise sales, and selling out almost every home game they play. It is true that they have a record payroll, but if you think they are not willing to dip further into the pocket for a guy like Halladay, you’re off the mark I’m afraid.

I find it amazing, that when the Mets were being loose, hi-fives, goofing off in the dug out whatever, most teams with the Philties leading the charge were all over it. Funny now it seems all the teams starting with the Philties can do antics , shane victorino for one, in the dug out and it is okay? and no one says anything about that. My hope is that the Mets get healthy back on track and play like they did, having fun doing whatever they do as long as it is in fun, especially when they play the Philties and dare them to say anything because they need to look in the mirror. They won the world series, good for them…. so now that give them the right to do exactly what the Mets were doing because it is a game bottom line. So if they can do it as the Champs then the Mets should do it and one better……….
Now this is for Omar,,,,,,,,, you are sooooooooooooo stupid……. you should have taken back Pedro because he wanted to be here and got rid of Livan he has been awful. Pedro couldn’t do any worse…… and now the Philties have him and it may just bite you in the ***…………. you should have been fired last year……. for your stupid god awful dealings in most cases…………. wake up ownership, he is not helping you…….

Everything I’ve seen or read says that the majority of ML scouts believe that Brown has a higher upside than Taylor.

But I guess they don’t ‘watch much baseball’.

Danegirl: I realize you’re a bit lost, but this is a Phillie’s blog site. If you want to cry about the mutts go to http://www.theystink.com and whine all you want . In the meantime, Muck the Fetts

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