Howard Hits 200, More on Halladay


howard 0717.jpgRyan Howard
 last night became the fastest player in baseball history to hit 200 home runs.

He already ranks eighth on the Phillies’ all-time list:

  1. Mike Schmidt, 548.
  2. Del Ennis, 259.
  3. Pat Burrell, 251.
  4. Chuck Klein, 243.
  5. Greg Luzinski, 223.
  6. Cy Williams, 217.
  7. Dick Allen, 204.
  8. Howard, 200.

But where will Howard end up? The Bill James Handbook 2009 projects players’ career numbers. It gives Howard a 32 percent chance to hit 600 homers, a 16 percent chance to hit 700 homers, a 9 percent chance to hit 762 homers and a 5 percent chance to hit 800 homers.

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The Phillies remain a leading candidate for Roy Halladay. Blue Jays scouts are everywhere these days, but they are especially scouring the Phillies’ Minor League system. If there wasn’t the potential for something to happen, the Blue Jays wouldn’t be there. Of course, keep in mind Halladay said earlier this week he considers his chances to be traded no better than 50 percent. But the Phillies are very much in this game, just like they were last year with CC Sabathia.

The Red Sox could put together a nice package for Halladay, but the Blue Jays seem unlikely to trade him within their division. Other than the Red Sox, the Phillies are one of the very few teams that can put together a package for him. If Halladay gets traded, I expect the Phillies to be right there at the end.

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The Phillies activated right-hander Clay Condrey from the 15-day DL. They designated right-hander Tyler Walker for assignment.

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Outfielder Michael Taylor, who Baseball America ranks the 23rd best prospect in the country, has been promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

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A top scout from another team said Sunday he considered right-hander Kyle Drabek, who Baseball America ranks the 24th best prospect in the country, to be the best pitcher at the All-Star Futures Game. He wasn’t terribly impressed with left-hander Yohan Flande, who also pitched. Flane is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in three starts for Double-A Reading since he went 7-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 13 starts for Single-A Clearwater.

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25 Comments

You have got to figure in the time that Howard for sure has left with the Phillies (the rest of this year and the next two) that before it is said and done he will be at least number 2 on the list. By the end of the season he could well be at number 5 on the list. And that is kinda cool.
As for Halladay, it was reported by Heyman at Fox Sports that the Blue Jays flat out told the BoSox and Yankees that they don’t want to trade him within the division, so they’d have to drop a ton of prospects in order to change their minds, and I don’t see that happening. In all honest, the way this is shaking out I think Roy either comes to the Phillies or stays put. No one else really can meet all of the factors necessary (prospects, the ability to take on payroll, being a contender, being outside the AL East or the AL entirely). I say we offer them Knapp, Carassco, Taylor, Kendrick and if need be one more (say Bastardo).

Hi debindixie, unfortunately for us Phils fans, I don’t think the Jays would be interested in Kendrick or Bastardo in a deal for Halladay even as the lesser prospects. I think it starts with Drabek and Taylor, then you have to add in either Marson or Donald, then Happ and that may get it done. Not sure if they covet Taylor or Brown as the other top prospect, but either way that’s where the Phils would have to start to get a deal done. Not sure if they will do it, but I would pull the trigger on it. I’ve seen all these guys in the minors and they look great, but you almost never have the opportunity to obtain the best pitcher in baseball (with all due respect to Lincecum).

And congrats to Ryan Howard on his accomplishment. I hope we have him beyond the next 2.5 years so that he can keep rising up the charts for us and not the Yankees or Red Sox.

deb, quit fooling yourself. The Jays would laugh at an offer like that. Face it, Happ or Drabek MUST be in any potential deal, along with Taylor. Drabek and Taylor are on the rise on every list of hot prospects and Happ is a potential ROY this season, so Amaro has to strike while the iron is hot. Drabek, Taylor and two close-to-major-league-ready players from a list of Donald, Marson, Carrasco, Carpenter, Worley, etc. would MAYBE get it done. MAYBE.
Kendrick? Bastardo? Please. Throw them in if you wish, but they won’t sway anybody.

Saw Michael Taylor play in the AA All-Star game this week; he is not only very impressive on the field, but has the personallity to go with it. Just a real nice kid…I hope he does well with the Pigs!

Jenn
http://philliesphollowers.mlblogs.com/

phan52, per my earlier comment, I agree with you on who we need to offer just to have a chance at Halladay, but you don’t have to berate a fellow fan. She may not have the prospects right, but we all want the same thing!

Now if this was a video game, I would force the Jays to accept Bruntlett for Halladay! :)

I’m not berating her, scott; just pointing out the reality of the situation. You have to give to get. Maybe some people don’t realize just how good Roy Halladay is. And there is no question that many Philly Phans overrate a lot of the players in our system.

In case ya’ll missed it the Iron Pigs had some fantastic uniforms last night: http://ironpigsbaseball.com/pressbox/news/index.html?article_id=667

And Deb, I hate to say it, but Kendrick and Bastardo aren’t really trade chips. Bastardo is a fringe prospect – he might turn out to be a serviceable ML pitcher, he might not. Kendrick is a known quantity, especially for ML hitters, who tend to catch on to his sinker pretty quickly, and crush it when it doesn’t sink (and it often doesn’t sink).

A deal likely will not be made without one of Brown or Drabek. If we can escape without dealing one of them I’d call it a victory. Both would probably be a dealbreaker for Rube. If we could trick them into taking Happ as a trade piece that would also be nice. He’s pitching well over his head right now.

Ok, ok. I say Taylor, Happ, Carassco, and Knapp. Supposedly Knapp is very highly regarded. That gives them one MLB ready pitcher, and two player ready to join the lineup next year, if not sooner (Taylor and Carassco). And Knapp in 2 years. Supposedly Knapp is one of the untouchables so I say trade him!

This Halladay talk has me ridiculously excited. I’m prepared for letdown though. I just don’t think the Jays are that serious about dealing him. That’s my take on it. But I’m willing to part with any prospects necessary to get him. I’d be disappointed to see some of these young guys leave the system after having followed them an anticipating their arrivals with the big club but what’s a GM to do?

Great game last night too. Good to see Raul back at the plate with his rake. Man can he square a ball up. Moyer continued his mastery of the Marlins. I swear Dan Uggla’s dreams have to be haunted by Jamie. He is absolutely lost against him. It’s starts like last night from Jamie that keep anyone from ever counting him out. He can get shelled one start and then absolutely dazzle in the next one.

I caught some of the highlights of Taylor’s start in AAA last night and he looks like a guy with raw power but his swing does seem kind of long. I saw Conlin wrote a piece about Taylor but I can’t read the garbage he puts out.

Deb, throw either Donald or Marson into that and you might have something cookin’.

Gotta say congrats to Howard.. as for Halladay, I would not include Drabeck and Happ in the same deal, Drabek has the makings and with his Futures appearance jumped up the ladder of rankings I think, and Happ is turning into a quality starter, has to be either or to start the grocery list, not both….

I do not envy Ruben Amaro, Jr. That man probably won’t sleep a wink until August 1st.

Agreed devilabrit, either/or, not both. But one of them has to lead the package along with Taylor. Happ is a ROY candidate and Drabek is the hottest pitching prospect out there. That’s what it takes to get a real difference maker. And Halladay is a difference maker.
Yeah, this has to be hard for Amaro. He always inquired about Halladay but I doubt he ever thought there would actually be a chance.

Wow, I didn’t know he hit 200 homers! Good for him. :) & Good Luck during the 2nd half of the season. http://tribechick.mlblogs.com/

-TC

I like Happ but you guys are way too high on him in my opinion. He’s due to come back to Earth. He has an 85% strand rate which tends to even out over the course of a season (league average is 71%). He has a .242 BABIP, which means he’s getting lucky with where the hits are going, and he’s had an enormous amount of help from the Phillies defense – his fielding independent pitching (FIP) is 4.51 (that’s on the same scale as ERA).

He’s definitely helped the Phillies out quite a bit but like I said, he’s pitching way over his head right now.

phylan – I think you’re probably right that Happ’s going to come back down. Usually the second go around with teams is the reality check. However, I don’t think he’s going to be Kendrick either. Probably a solid 3 or 4 starter in a Major League rotation when he settles in to his career.

That said, to get the best pitcher in baseball, I would include him with Drabeck along with the other prospects we’ve been discussing. I love Happ, but we would be worshipping at the Halliday alter if we had him in a Phils uniform!

I have to say that when it was a foregone conclusion that Amaro, Jr. was the GM in waiting once Gillick announced he wouldn’t be back I was not that happy about it. But I’ve been impressed up to this point. Ruben has not been afraid to make a splash. He locked up the core over the offseason and got Raul (which was widely criticized) but up to this point has paid off big time. If he really wants to make his mark and go for the gusto Halladay is the way to do it.

I really like Happ but I wouldn’t let him stop me from making a deal. He just has really good poise up there and attacks the strike zone. And he’s a lefty which already gives him a leg up. He can hide the ball very well and that’s how he gets hitters out. He does remind me a lot of Kendrick when he first joined the team. Will he fall hardly back to earth ala Kendrick? It remains to be seen but I think he has better secondary and tertiary pitches than Kendrick had/has.

While I’d love to have Halliday in philly, I feel you must be careful NOT to overpay. Happ is NOT a prospect. He’s a proven commodity who has gotten better and better each year since 2007. I’d be reluctant to trade him because I believe he will continue to improve. And I would , under NO circumstances , trade Drabek or Taylor. They will likely both be in Philly, next year.
I’d offer them Happ ( veryy reluctantly), Rhp Knapp, Dominic Brown and their choice of ANY other Phillies farm player NOT named Michael Taylor or Kyle Drabek. If that is NOT acceptable, just move on . The Jays , reportedly, view the Phils as their only REAL option. So why bid against yourself? Hopefully Phillies fans are objective enough ,and not blinded by the Halliday NAME recognition, to see the other point of view.

Halladay is like a radio station at the moment… WCHDFM and a number of teams are listening, it comes down to how bad do you want the songs and what will you give to get them, and for the Jays it’s how bad do we need money and a view to the future.

A day at CBP with tickets drinks and food – $150
Martinez $1m + bonus’
Halladay in a Phillies Uniform by August 1st – PRICELESS
Wonder if the Jays take Mastercard

dolfanman, what exactly have Drabek and Taylor done in a major league uniform? Ya can’t tell me?
Well, I CAN tell you what Roy Halladay has done.
And BTW, Taylor wil not be in Philly next season, as their outfield has no openings and is filled with established All-Stars.

dolfanman, I respectfully disagree. Happ is a proven commodity? Huh? I guess Kendrick was a proven commodity in ’07 too. Sure glad we didn’t package him in a trade for a Cy Young winner. I’m not blinded by the Halladay’s NAME, in fact, he barely gets any name recognition, especially in the NL. I’m blinded by his ERA, his WHIP, and his GB/FB and K/BB ratios. I’d take him over any other pitcher except maaaybe Santana, Lincecum or King Felix. When a pitcher like that becomes available there can be no untouchables. Is it a gamble? Sure. But it’s a bigger gamble to rely on unproven prospects as your key players get older and you lose guys to FA. The time is now for a Phillies dynasty.

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