Arbitration Numbers Exchanged

Here are the salary arbitration figures exchanged today:

Shane Victorino

Phillies offering $4.75 million.
Victorino asking for $5.8 million.

Joe Blanton

Phillies offering $7.5 million.
Blanton asking for $10.25 million.

Carlos Ruiz

Phillies offering $1.7 million.
Ruiz asking for $2.5 million.

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24 Comments

No way man. Blanton is a good number three–and the only thing we got. Seven and a half is a good number for him…

As for Victorino…he deserves more.

I’m starting to think they shouuld’ve just non-tendered Blanton and tried to talk him down, or just parted ways and looked elsewhere – and that’s completely independent of all that Lee business. $7.5 million I think will end up being an overpayment, and $10+ is just absurd.

Ruiz and Vic figures look good though.

I like Vic’s numbers where they are actually. Considering defense and offense, he was about equivalent to Curtis Granderson last year, who is making $5.5 MM in 2010.

And Blanton is going to regress this year. I’d give him $5.5 or $6.

Victorino is a bargain at that price. Ruiz deserves what he’s asking. Blanton is not a $10 million a year pitcher. Thats just ridiculous. $7.5 million is a fair number.

No, that is exactly how it works – you pay a player based on his expected performance, not for what he did the previous year. Some front offices are better at projecting this than others, and that’s why some GMs are great, some are terrible, and some are mediocre.

OK that comment 3 posts up was obviously in response to muleman but the MLBlogs comment system is so messed up

Ruiz is a freaking bargain! Why are they even going to the arbitration table with him? I think the $7.5 mil for Blanton is fair too, but baseball is screwy. Look at what other free agent pitchers have been getting and compare them to Blanton.
The difference between Victorino’s asking and offer is too small to bother with. Pay him for Pete’s sake.

phylan: It isn’t about what Blanton is going to do this year, it’s based on what he has done. You can’t predict failure and pay a guy based on conjecture.

okay Give Victorino a long term deal and give him his money he is worth it and same to Ruiz the pitchers love him as for Blanton he is CRAZY I think he has done well but he deserves something not like what he is asking for.

phylan: You can’t predict what a player is going to do in the coming year. They get paid on past performance. Its the only way to grade them.

joebridgenc, that’s just wrong. I’m not trying to be a jerk, but that’s not how FOs operate. They certainly use past performance in creating projections of expected performance, but inevitably they must incorporate what they can predict about a player’s future performance – based on consistent stats like K/9, BB/9, OBP, the stuff that doesn’t fluctuate much from year to year, in addition to age, conditioning, injuries, and what not. You pay the guy based on what you expect to get, or else you’re wasting your money.

And like I said, some FOs – like the Twins – don’t really attempt to do that, which is why they make a lot of really poor decisions.

They should negotiate something in the middle for Victorino and Ruiz, but I would stand pat with Blanton. He’ll never get over 10 million from an arbitrator.
And phylan, GM’s don’t base the offerings on past performance or expected performance in the future. It is based on what they think the arbitrator will give the players, plain and simple. I think they lowballed Vic and Ruiz and will lose if they don’t settle. They hit on a solid number with Blanton and don’t need to negotiate at all, IMO.

I know it isn’t this simple, but I can’t forget that we could have had Lee AND Halladay. Give $10 mil to Lee for one year and trade Blanton for whatever you could get, just win now!

I agree with the general concensus that Ruiz and Victorino are a good deal no matter which way the decision falls, their numbers or the Phillies’s offer. Blanton, however is simply insane. Yes, he’s been consistant the last year and a half for us. Yes, he had a vedry good season last year. However, as an indication, when we shopped him prior to the Lee deal, we had no takers. Can you honsestly say he is worth more then CLiff Lee who will make 9 million this year?

Also, let’s stop whining about how we could have/should have/ wanted to have both Lee and Halladay. It didn’t happen and it won’t happen now so for God’s sake, move on!!! Rube is correct that without a farm system we would be in huge trouble after this year when our core begins to go FA.

Early predictions: look for a mid season trade of Blanton to LA or possibly Cubs if they are condending. We’ll get prosepects including a decent young arm, and a catcher who can back up Ruiz in 2011.

Also, don’t be surprised if Werth is traded at deadline for an arm

phylan: We’re saying the same thing. A future performance is projected using past performance.

Eric Gagne?
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20100120_Closer_Eric_Gagne_has_tryout_withPhillies.html

What a dearth of young talent there must be that a team like the Phillies would give a tryout to a guy like this. It’s a sad state of affairs.

Gagne, 4.56 ERA in the, “Can-Am” league. Wonder what that projects to in the Major league? Low risk, no reward is my prediction.

I think the Can-Am-to-MLB ERA conversion multiplier is 2.75. :)

Chooch & the Flying Hawaiian deserve a mid-point increase btwn the two figures. It would be nice if they could sign a long-term
deal :-)

Not sure what Blanton’s group is thinking. I did read that his agent is the same as Ryan Howard’s but he’s obviously not in the same league as the Big Man. I think the Phils’ offer is very reasonable.

Saw this on Foxsports.com, predictions for the 2010 MLB season. Particularly like items 1 & 2 :-) http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/crystal-baseball

Joe, ya need to pick 6 numbers to win the Powerball, not one.

Enjoyed the FoxSports article on the predictions for 2010, Karen. Thanks for passing it on. Hope Big Joe, Vic and Chooch get what they’re asking for…although Joe is high, Vic about right, Chooch deserves more.

did you notice # 4, where our former own Michael Taylor wins the AL rookie of the year??

I hope Taylor wins the rookie of the year award. That won’t change my delight that Roy Halladay is a Phillie.

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