More 2011 Projections

Recently, I wrote about the pitching projections in The Bill James Handbook 2011.

Let’s look today at the hitters:

  1. Jimmy Rollins: .266 with 33 doubles, 5 triples, 15 home runs, 61 RBIs, 87 runs scored and 25 stolen bases (.329 OBP/.424 SLG/.753 OPS). They project Rollins to play in just 136 games. Rollins certainly is hoping to play in much more than that.
  2. Placido Polanco: .295 with 30 doubles, 2 triples, 8 home runs, 62 RBIs and 83 runs scored. (.342/.391/.733).
  3. Chase Utley: .288 with 34 doubles, 2 triples, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, 99 runs scored and 13 stolen bases (.387/.497/.884). They project Utley to play in just 146 games. If he is healthy, we know Charlie Manuel will have him on the field nearly every game.
  4. Ryan Howard: .276 with 30 doubles, 2 triples, 43 home runs, 133 RBIs and 98 runs scored (.368/.547/.915). James’ crew expects Howard to bounce back from a relatively disappointing 2010.
  5. Shane Victorino: .279 with 31 doubles, 7 triples, 16 home runs, 66 RBIs and 97 runs scored (.343/.431/.774). I know Manuel has said he would consider hitting Rollins fifth, but I’m not believing it until I see it. So for the moment, I’ve got Victorino hitting fifth because it breaks up the lefties and gives Francisco some time to develop into an everyday player without the pressure of hitting behind Howard.
  6. Raul Ibanez: .270 with 31 doubles, 2 triples, 20 home runs, 83 RBIs and 75 runs scored (.343/.446/.789).
  7. Ben Francisco: .271 with 21 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs, 38 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 10 stolen bases (.336/.446/.782). James projected these numbers with Francisco playing in 107 games and getting 303 at-bats.
  8. Carlos Ruiz: .270 with 26 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, 51 RBIs and 46 runs scored (.360/.413/.773).

I should have had Domonic Brown in the lineup based on their projections, but I wanted to keep him separate because, well, just look at these numbers. They project he will hit .288 with 33 doubles, 4 triples, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, 84 runs scored and 28 stolen bases in 548 at-bats(.346/.505/.851). Those are some seriously huge numbers for a rookie. If that happens nobody will be worried about right field and Jayson Werth‘s departure anymore, but I’ve got to think those numbers are high. But if they end up accurate, I think everybody is going to be buying a copy of the handbook for their 2012 fantasy baseball leagues.

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36 Comments

Holy crap, I’d take half those numbers from D Brown this year and be happy.

We Win!

That’s 711 runs from 10 guys. If you go back and look at runs scored by the bench/pitchers add another 90-100 runs over the course of a season (Does Bill James project those guys too?). That would put them around 800 or so…I second Zudok’s comment, if these projections are anywhere close…WE WIN.

If Brown does that he wins ROY walking away. One thing, however, noone on the team is projected to score 100 runs (though 3 are damn close). If these #’s come true, we waltz into the playoffs with no sweat. Once there, anything can happen.

BTW, I’d be interested in seeing Valdez, Gload and Mayberry’s projections as well

I still say Charlie should platoon BenFran in left, so that Dom Brown can handle right once he gets his defense worked on in Clearwater. I would love to see those numbers from Dom, because that would mean that we would see a Rookie of the Year Award winner in right field!

The projections for Domonic Brown are ridiculous. Jayson Werth would be happy with those numbers. I think he will eventually provide at least those kind of numbers on a consistent basis, but not as a rookie.

the more I think about it, I’d be happy if Brown does half of these predictions (except BA). 17 doubles, 2 triples, 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 14 stolen bases would still bea great rookie year

f-i-j, those would be great numbers if he platoons. I’d want a little more production than that if he is playing regularly. I would hope to compare him to what Heyward did last year…close to 20 HR’s, around 30 doubles, 70-80 runs scored, 70-75 RBI.
It depends on where he hits though. I’d bat him 5 if he plays every day, but Charlie may have him down around 6-7 to protect him, which would hurt his run scoring.

i dont look at projections often, but anytime i see a guy who may or may not make the roster have numbers like that, even just high AB numbers, it makes me wonder if he/they are projecting AAA stats

Are you sure those Domonic Brown projections aren’t for his 2011 season with the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs?

For those of you who said you “would be happy with half those numbers” for Brown … I think you’ll be happy.
Projections are nice for a snow day, but that’s about it. It’s funny how the other players’ projections are based on past performance (?) but Brown’s are so high based on, what … ?

I’d be disappointed if Ruiz’s average dropped .032 this year.
Francisco is going to get 303 at-bat’s playing against lefty’s? Where does James project the sudden influx of left-handed pitchers is coming from?
If Francisco and Brown are going to platoon, they’re somehow going to get over 800 at-bats combined. That makes good nonsense. Maybe Charlie is planning on using a short-fielder?
Based on those numbers, I’d say James would project the Phils to win 186 games.

Bill James must have been hanging out with Charlie Sheen when he he projected those kind of numbers for Brown.

Mule: I thik Ben’s ABs are coming from PHing,replacing Victorino in CF occasionally, replacing Ibanex every now and then etc. With Brown projected at over 500 AB,I don’t think James is thinking platoon in RF

phan & f.i.j.: The projections HAVE to be based on figuring how many at-bat’s a guy is going to get. Otherwise, what good are the numbers? Give a guy 200 ABs and he’ll do better than if he had 100, right?
How many ABs do they project for Victorino and Ibanez? With 97 runs scored and 83 RBI respectively, I’d say those are pretty much full-time numbers for both of them.

It just doesn’t add up. You can’t project 850 ABs between two guys (Brown and Francisco) who are supposed to be platooning and/or pinch hitting, then add-in two more full-time outfielders.

The whole thing is worthless. Let’s just play the damned games.

I don’t think the people doing these projections get down to figuring out how many at-bats they will get on a particular team vs another guy on the team. I think they are just projections based on their past performance and contributions. They obviously think that Domonic Brown is going to get most of the at-bats in RF, and that Francisco’s numbers are a compromise between his number of at-bats last season and the number he got in the two seasons before that.

OK, now I’m getting a little annoyed. So many self-styled brainy fans consistently underestimate the prospect the Phillies have in Dominick Brown. He is quite possibly the best outfield prospect the Phils have ever had. Over and over he he has been mentioned by the scouts of several teams as the best they’ve EVER seen. Todd may know the numbers, but two said he may be the fastest man to ever play MLB.
It seems to me that with the luxury of having R,R,C,+C, the Phils have the unique opportunity to start DB every game in RF.

@adamstrim Thank you. I have been saying the same thing about letting Brown develop in the outfield. There is now four pitchers that Charlie can look at and say, yes, Brown just made a mistake, get us out of it. And they can take the ball and finish out the side.

adamstrim: You’re annoyed? I get annoyed when fans who tout a player and can’t spell his name.
“The fastest man ever to play MLB?” Really? When he can steal first base, I’ll get excited about that. So far, the guy has 94 MLB at-bats, so I can withhold judgment over your “expert” scouts who also touted the likes of Todd VanPoppel, Brien Taylor, Shawn Abner and Matt Bush.

Prospects. The word says it all.

Ouch, got me there. It must be embarrassing though to have screwed up the sentence correcting my spelling. Lose the ?and?.
Let?s talk baseball shall we? Let me see if I can make sense of your inverse logic. Last spring, Baseball News ranked DB the #1 major league prospect. Right now, MLB.com ranks him #4 of their top 50 and #3 OF prospects. These folks interview scouts and GM?s from every team.
Now if I have this right, by your thinking, since experts have made mistakes in the past, surely D. Brown will be a bust. We should leave him to rot in the minors where he can learn how to hit dead-end pitchers and steal off those same pitchers, and catchers who will never make the show.
Now a fan with half a brain would think it?s a better idea to make DB the everyday right fielder. He would have access to major league coaching assets on a daily basis. DB would also benefit from the immediate influence of Shane, an intense competitor and perennial golden glove next to him in the field.
The opening is there in RF. He has the tools. He needs ML experience. We have great pros to help him with the nuances of his game (e.g. pitchers) and to shape a winning character. He doesn?t cost much. We have the pitching to smooth- out the mistakes he?s bound to make.
This fan thinks he?ll be pretty exciting, but what do I know?

To be fair adamstrim, I think you overstated DB’s prospects in your first post. But I agree with everything you say in your last one. DB should play almost every day and the Phillies are in a unique position to allow him to do so.

Phan and Adam: I think that assuming DB plays well in the spring he will begin the season in a platoon with Ben Francisco. If DB shows he can handle the job every day he’ll take away Francisco’s starts, just as Werth did to Junkins in ’08.

f-i-j, it is not going to help DB’s development to have him platooning. Francisco can get plenty of starts by playing both right AND left, not necessarily in a strict platoon. If DB’s doesn’t appear up to it in spring training, he would most probably go to AAA. He’s gotta play almost every day.

f_i_j, if DB has a mediocre spring it means all the more he needs everyday experience in RH. His time is now. He’s NOT Jayson Werth, nor should he be compared to him in his development. JW isn’t nearly the player this guy will turn out to be. Some fans, not you, but, Muleman for one, seem to resent this very special player for reasons that I can only guess.
The Phils are getting older with not one fielding player under 30. For this reason, I would also start Mayberry in left field, assuming we can trade Ibanez. He played well when called up last year and adds a much needed RH bat to the lineup. A platoon with Francisco or Ibanez til the trade deadline may be in order here.

f_i_j, if DB has a mediocre spring it means all the more he needs everyday experience in RH. His time is now. He’s NOT Jayson Werth, nor should he be compared to him in his development. JW isn’t nearly the player this guy will turn out to be. Some fans, not you, but, Muleman for one, seem to resent this very special player for reasons that I can only guess.
The Phils are getting older with not one fielding player under 30. For this reason, I would also start Mayberry in left field, assuming we can trade Ibanez. He played well when called up last year and adds a much needed RH bat to the lineup. A platoon with Francisco or Ibanez til the trade deadline may be in order here.

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f_i_j, if DB has a mediocre spring it means all the more he needs everyday experience in RH. His time is now. He’s NOT Jayson Werth, nor should he be compared to him in his development. JW isn’t nearly the player this guy will turn out to be. Some fans, not you, but, Muleman for one, seem to resent this very special player for reasons that I can only guess.
The Phils are getting older with not one fielding player under 30. For this reason, I would also start Mayberry in left field, assuming we can trade Ibanez. He played well when called up last year and adds a much needed RH bat to the lineup. A platoon with Francisco or Ibanez til the trade deadline may be in order here.

f_i_j, if DB has a mediocre spring it means all the more he needs everyday experience in RH. His time is now. He’s NOT Jayson Werth, nor should he be compared to him in his development. JW isn’t nearly the player this guy will turn out to be. Some fans, not you, but, Muleman for one, seem to resent this very special player for reasons that I can only guess.
The Phils are getting older with not one fielding player under 30. For this reason, I would also start Mayberry in left field, assuming we can trade Ibanez. He played well when called up last year and adds a much needed RH bat to the lineup. A platoon with Francisco or Ibanez til the trade deadline may be in order here.

l

f_i_j, if DB has a mediocre spring it means all the more he needs everyday experience in RH. His time is now. He’s NOT Jayson Werth, nor should he be compared to him in his development. JW isn’t nearly the player this guy will turn out to be. Some fans, not you, but, Muleman for one, seem to resent this very special player for reasons that I can only guess.
The Phils are getting older with not one fielding player under 30. For this reason, I would also start Mayberry in left field, assuming we can trade Ibanez. He played well when called up last year and adds a much needed RH bat to the lineup. A platoon with Francisco or Ibanez til the trade deadline may be in order here.

l

k

Stutter much, adamstrim?

that was a mouthful Adam. The object, BTW isn’t to make this Brown’s time, or anyone elses, but to win the WS. IF platooning him does that, great. If playing Francisco does it, great. If playing brown evey day does it, great. Hey, if putting a dog out there brings home the WS I’m in favor. Just as long as they win

You’re dead on f_i_j. Go Phils!!!

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