Hamels’ Next Deal: Think Lee, Not Weaver

The Phillies and Cole Hamels today agreed to a one-year, $15 million contract, which allowed them to avoid salary arbitration.

Next up? The Phillies and Hamels’ agent John Boggs will talk about a multiyear extension.

“We can negotiate with Cole from today through the end of November, and then beyond that to get a multiyear deal done,” Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “Just because we have a one-year deal in place doesn’t mean we can’t do something long term. As far as Cole beyond 2012, that’s something that’s still very much open for discussion.”

Hamels is line for a major payday, but how large remains to be seen.

But think Cliff Lee more than Jered Weaver.

Weaver signed a five-year, $85 million contract extension last summer with the Angels, but Weaver bypassed free agency partly because he wanted to stay in Southern California and play for his hometown team. Weaver and Hamels have remarkably similar career statistics, so it is easy to think Hamels might be paid in that range: Hamels is 77-54 with a 3.39 ERA in 181 career appearances. He has a 1.141 WHIP and averages 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Weaver is 82-47 with a 3.31 ERA in 171 career appearances. He has a 1.165 WHIP and averages 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

But Boggs said this afternoon the Weaver deal is a “non-starter” in negotiations, which I assume the Phillies already know.

“It would be natural to look at that as a comparison,” he said. “Jered signed for his own personal reasons – and I applaud him for that – but it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re going to follow the same standard. Everybody is different. For Jered to sign there it doesn’t mean that’s the template we’re going to follow.”

Lee signed a five-year, $120 million contract with the Phillies in Dec. 2010. That certainly seems to be a better measuring stick for Hamels, right?

“Absolutely,” Boggs said. “If you’re this close to free agency, you start to make comparables of what you have the potential of making as a free agent.”

Lee signed his deal at 32. Hamels is 28. It stands to reason Hamels will be looking for a contract worth $20 million or more per season.

Reason to be nervous if you’re a Phillies fan? Not yet. There seems to be genuine interest on both sides to reach an agreement. Finalizing Hamels’ 2012 contract could have been the first step.

“The goal was to get that out of the way,” Boggs said. “I’m sure down the road we’ll have a conversation about moving forward. We plan on keeping the discussions open. It’s a process.”

Boggs said he hasn’t talked to Hamels about setting any potential deadline regarding negotiations, which some players have done in the past.

“At the end of the day we really don’t have any concrete game plan as far as how long we are going to plan on discussing this,” Boggs said. “That will be decided at some point shortly, or as we get into the process. But there’s definitely a desire to stay. At the end of the day it really depends on the value we place on Cole, and hopefully it coincides with the value the Phillies place on Cole. That’s the reason you have a negotiation. From a basic desire, yes, he’d be more than happy to stay there. He knows the Phillies. He’s homegrown. That’s what we’ll attempt to do, but sometimes things don’t work out if we can’t agree on the value.”


In my blog post today, I think the deal was great for Hamels, but is he great? I am not so sure he’s proven himself to be ‘the ace’ that you want to have on your team. Most wins in a season is 15, he’s got some ways to go I think.


Hamels was one of the top pitchers in MLB, regardless of his W-L record. It’s not his fault that the team failed to score for him. Hamels gave the Phillies a ridiculously good chance to win almost every time out. He was a league leader in all the important metrics like ERA, WHIP, K/BB, opposing hitters’ OPS, etc. Wins and losses are one of the worst measurables when figuring a pitcher’s effectiveness. He would be the nominal Ace on most pitching staffs that don’t have a Roy Halladay.

Don’t forget the Phils have a trck record for giving Cole very little support. If he had had the support that the Yankees pitchers have gotten over the past 4 years he might have accumulated over 80 wins by now…..

Hamels is one of the top starting pitchers in the MLB. With run support, and no blown saves, he was a 20-game Winner. In 2008, WS MVP….Has he arrived? YES.

While I don’t agree with the argument about run support, blown saves, etc., there’s no doubt that Cole is one of the top LHPs in the game today. I think it boils down to more than wins and losses.
If they’re looking to find room to sign another $20 million pitcher, they should think hard about trading Cliff Lee and picking up some prospects and/or a decent hitter to pad the lineup.
If (a big IF) Worley continues his success this year and Hamels builds on 2011, they’d be better served with Halladay/Hamels/Worley and a better lineup.
That’s why I think they should wait until the end of the season and see what they have in Worley. Let Hamels do the “Rollins tour” and come back to a better deal at home. There is no urgency.

Doesn’t Lee have some kind of NO-TRADE clause in his contract?

So Hamels doesn’t win more because he does not get the support? Since 2006, Halladay’s wins to starts ratio is .564 and Hamels’ is .411. Yes, Roy is a better pitcher so some of the difference is undoubtedly due to this but Hamels’ pitched on superior teams 4 of the 6 years. Kendrick did not reach the majors until 2007 but his wins to starts ratio is .408. Since 2006 the ratio of Roy’ wins to total decisions has been .642 while Cole’s has been .572. Again, a difference to be expected. However, Kyle’s ratio is .571. I don’t know if these statistics are used under different jargon or not. But it would appear that based on W-L records, the Phillies are more likely to win with Roy pitching than either Cole or Kyle. But as between Cole and Kyle, it is a toss-up.

pherris, so by your measurables, Cole Hamels is closer to Kyle Kendrick than Roy Halladay? Got it.
FYI, run support is a measurable thing and, for an inexplicable reason, Cole Hamels has gotten terrible run support since he’s ptiched in MLB. Kendrick, on the other hand, gets far better run support and always has. In fact, he led the NL in run support in 2010, while Halladay and Hamels were league leaders in lack of support. This past year, Hamels was once again a league leader in lack of support along with Cliff Lee. They both would have easily gotten 20 wins if they had the run support that Worley and Kendrick got. As an example, Tim Lincecum was 13-14 this past season but his overall measurables were very comparable to Hamels. The difference? Lincecum got the worst run support of any pitcher in the entire NL..

Cole is closer to Kyle than he is to Roy, my point exactly. Hamels and Lee would have been guaranteed 20 wins if…if….if what? How about if they had pitched better?

I won’t bore anyone with stats, I will just say that if you are a fan and you watch these Phillies like I do, like all us fans do, you see that the lack of run support for Cole is criminal……absolutely criminal. Why does it happen like that? No idea. Chalk it up to the baseball Gods, I guess. Either way, if you watch this team you have to have picked up on the pattern. It’s a crying ass shame and it’s no one’s fault in particular but Hamels has pitched well enough to be an 18-20 game winner in more than one season.

knowing that some one would complain about Hamels Win totals, here is a quote from Bob Ford’s piece yesteray, “The Phils scored two runs or less in 16 of his (Hamels) 31 starts. When they scored three runs or more, he was 10-0. (By comparison, the Phils scored two runs or less in only 10 of Lee’s 32 starts, and in only seven of Halladay’s 32 starts.)
Bob Ford
So yeah, Pherris, Hamels doesn’t win ’cause he doesn’t get support

I’d guess that you could make that “3 runs or more” statement about a lot of good pitchers in the Major Leagues.
I’m not much of a Bob Ford fan.

Hamels is more than just “good”. There’s not a whole lot of pitchers who have Hamels’ measurables. With just normal support he probably wins 18-20 at least a couple of times.

No, Hamels doesn’t win because he is out pitched.

Dude, you just said that Cole Hamels is closer to Kyle Kendrick than Roy Halladay. I guess that’s why he just finished in the top 5 for the Cy Young Award and has a NLCS and WS MVP award.
You just played your last credibility card. Officially clueless.

As a public service, I did some research of Cole’s contemporaries and their records in 2011 with and without run support:
Ian Kennedy: 0-2 runs scored is 3-3. 3 or more he’s 18-1
Clayton Kershaw: 0-2 runs scored is 4-4. 3 or more he’s 17-1.
Jered Weaver: 0-2 runs scored is 3-5. 3 or more he’s 15-3.
Ryan Vogelsong: 0-2 runs scored is 1-7. 3 or more he’s 12-0.
James Shields: 0-2 runs scored is 4-7. 3 or more he’s 12-5.
Tim Lincecum: 0-2 runs scored is 3-12. 3 or more he’s 10-2.
Supporting my point that Bob Ford is a hack and you can make that “run support” statement about just about any good (that’s right, phan) pitcher in the Major Leagues. It’s a stupid argument because it’s always true. Get runs and win. Don’t get runs and lose.
It’s about as basic as it gets.

Wow, Hamels finished in the top five for the Cy Young. An NLCS and WS MVP? Dudette, you are talking ancient history here. What has he done for the Phillies since 2008? And, yes, the statistics speak for themselves. Hamels is not only closer to Kendricks, they are twins, joined at the statistics. Hamels is the most tradable commodity the Phillies now possess. But Junior will probably allow him to hang around a season too long just as Junior did with Werth.


LOL!! What a clown. I’ll just let what you say stand alone in it’s stupidity.

Dudette, better a clown than an asshole.

Wow – Hamels is Kendrick? Sounds like a stretch. I guess that’s why they signed Kyle to a $3.5 million deal and Cole got $15 mil. Obviously, pherris’ e-mails to Ruben got buried in the pile.
It’s a shame we don’t have real baseball to discuss.

Hamels and Kendrick twins….thanks for the chuckle.

pherris can be pretty funny when he’s off his meds.

I agree somewhat with Muleman’s point however, it is amazing Hamels lack of run support over the last few years. Also sometimes Halladay gives 200% and gets nothing in return.

muleman doesn’t necessarily agree with the point. He’s actually made a counter argument, which I don’t buy. It’s easy to say that a pitcher’s W-L record suffers when his team scores fewer runs. Duh!
It’s simply a fact that Hamels has gotten less run support than just about everybody in MLB outside of Tim Lincecum.

It’s so nice to have a spokesman here on the board. The issue of run support comes off as whining about circumstances. Who was the opposing pitcher?
The Phillies were right around the NL average in runs scored and the Giants were dead last. So, do the Giants not support Lincecum, or does their lineup stink?
When the lineup isn’t scoring, most times the pitcher has to be pinch-hit for. Another circumstance of pitching in low-scoring games.
There’s too much to it, which is why it comes off as whining.

Hamels has never “whined” or complained about it. I am just pointing out a fact that hurts his W-L record. Look at the rest of his measurables and you know that he is an elite pitcher.

phan52, Hamels doesn’t have to whine, you have that covered for the entire franchise. What is that I hear echoing from the basement of phan52’s mother…wait…wait…yes, I can make it out now “ERA, run support, ERA,run support, ERA, run support….”. Could it be that phan52 connects some significance to Hamels’ ERA and the run support he receives? Let’s take a look. First things first, for 2011, Hamels started 31 games and finished with a 14-9 record and an ERA of 2.79. Therefore he had 8 games which he started in which he was not involved in a decision. But the Phillies were 4-4 in these game so they are essentially a wash in the hitting vs. pitching duel. But in all fairness I must add that Cole’s ERA for those games was 2.52. Cole’s ERA for those games in which he was the winning pitcher was 1.48. Quite impressive and probably enough for certain segments of the phan-base to nominate young Cole for canonization. Turning now to Cole’s ERA in his losses. Would you believe 5.88? It is understandable why Cole’s record was 0-9 for these games no matter how dismal the run support was thought to be.

Kyle Kendrick is Cole Hamel’s twin. Got it. And the basement stuff? Smart and mature; just what this site needs. Maybe you should just go back to the ESPN boards where that stuff is considered intellectual.

In your inimitable fashion you attempt to discredit the person saying it rather than what is being said. Smart and mature? What sayeth the echos from phan52’s mother’s basement? Tell us Pope of the Zozone, what of the fact that Cole has a 5.88 ERA in games that he loses? Think it has something to do with why he loses and his W-L record is so pedestrian.

Yeah pherris, I get it. He’s Kyle Kendrick. Just so everybody else here knows, pherris’ words not mine.
And I like how you fail to mention that Cole had a 1.49 ERA and a 0.771 WHIP in his 14 wins, and a 2.67 ERA and a 0.944 WHIP in 9 no-decisions, yet you choose to bring up the 9 games where he was kind of like Kyle Kendrick. No wonder you compare them. Easy when you cherry pick 9 out of 32 starts. Yup, pedestrian, indeed.😛

What did you do with the money your mother gave you for reading lessons, Pope? I addressed all of Hamels’ starts in three categories: wins, losses and no-decisions. Since you obviously did your best rendition of Helen Keller when cherry picking my above post. I’ll post it again Hamel’s had an ERA of 1.48 in his wins, an ERA of 2.52 in his losses, and an ERA of 5.88 in his no-decisions. As a further sign of your visual acuity, Hamels only had 8 no decisions as a starter, not 9, which still represents over 25% of his starts. All things considered in 2011, Hamels came out a winner in only 45% of his starts due to all causes.

I know the one thing we can agree on on this snowy day……we can’t wait for Feb. 19th when pitchers and catchers report🙂

Can’t agree more. 28 days.🙂

phan: I’m not saying that Cole whines (where did you read that?) I’m saying that people who make excuses for his lack of run support are whining. It’s the same sort of stupid argument that has us “subtract 4 starts” when we’re considering some pitchers’ ERA or other average. You can’t subtract starts.
His record speaks for itself. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t dare compare Kendrick to Hamels.

so your saying that Felix shouldn’t have won cy young the other year because he only had 14 wins and therefore wasnt best pitcher in AL? wins dont tell anything about pitcher just like they dont tell anything about hitter

No “you’re” not saying anything like that. I’m so happy you clowns can put words into my mouth. Just exactly what are you talking about?

Not only Felix, but Lincecum as well in 2009. If you go by W-L, there’s no way either one of those guys win the Cy Young Award, and the recognition as the best pitcher in their respective leagues. People (like pherris) who go by W-L records aren’t paying attention, or need some Baseball 101.

To whom are you talking?

Pope, where did I say the W-L is the be all to end all? I just disagree with your belief that it means nothing. Can your pea brain grasp this distinction? But poor reading comprehension goes along with poor reading ability, I guess.

Looks like Lincecum will almost certainly break Hamels’ record deal for an arbitration eligible pitcher. The Giants are trying to sign him long term , but he turned down a $100 million 5-year deal.

Bet on that. Lincecum was paid $14 mil last year, and I think the Giants’ offer is more than Hamels, so yeah.
I remember when Mickey Mantle made $100,000 in 1963 and people thought it was outrageous. For the time, I suppose it was.

Pete Rose’s groundbreaking free agent contract with the Phillies in 1979 was for $3.2 million for four years. Highest paid player in team sports at the time. That’s less than Kyle Kendrick just got for one year in arbitration.

And Cole Hamels gets $15 million for one year, more than twice as much as Steve Carlton received in his entire career. Pope, what is your point?

Prince Fielder just got $214 million for 9 years. So, explain to me how Boras has “lost his touch” again?

He got lucky that Victor Martinez blew out his knee. Otherwise, Fielder never gets that contract.

You just can’t stand to be wrong, can you?

Muleman, haven’t you ever heard of papal infallibility? The Pope is never wrong on three subjects: faith, morals and baseball.

Yeah, a 27-year old first baseman with 230 career HRs “got lucky” because somebody else got hurt. Sure. Meanwhile, the Tigers are moving the AL batting champ to third base to accomodate “the luckiest man on the face of the earth.”
With their pitching staff and the offense they can put on the field, the Tigers sure are a lucky bunch.

muleman, Fielder is a FA, so there is a cetain amount of money he HAS to make, considering his numbers. But do you really think the Tigers would give him ANY kind of contract if they had a healthy Miguel Cabrera AND Victor Martinez? First of all, there is no place for all three of them to play because they are all first basemen and DH’s. If Martinez hadn’t blown out his knee Fielder would have had to settle for a 5-6 year deal with the Nats, which is ridiculous for a 28 year old free agent with his numbers.

Cabrera isn’t healthy? Says who? The guy played 161 games. Now, he’s moving to third base beecause the Tigers “had to” sign Fielder. Sure, move the AL batting champion around the diamond because you made a “desparation signing.” Get a clue. And losing a DH for a year wouldn’t necessitate giving Fielder a 9-year deal.
If’s and buts.
I’ll stand by my assertion that Boras is a world-class agent and that Fielder was always going to get a big-time deal, regardless of where it was. You can’t prove that he would have signed a 5-year deal with Washington but I CAN prove that he signed a 9-year deal with the Tigers.
Case closed.

Only because Victor Martinez got hurt. That’s a fact. Detroit was never in the mix until that happened, and the first thing they did was try and steal him in a one-year deal. After that, what’s the name of that Bowie song…”Panic in Detroit”.?
I never said Cabrera was hurt. I said that there was no way that the Tigers even approach Fielder if both Martinez and Cabrera are healthy. And I’ll really be interested to see how many innings Cabrera gets at 3B. There’s a reason he hasn”t played there since 2007.

Pope, you actually believe that a team not in the mix goes out and signs a player for 9 years and $214 million because their DH will be out for the season. Pleeeeeeeeeease, tell us you are joking.

Read much, pherris? It would help your case if you, you know, looked it up?

The Detroit management never contacted Fielder or his reps until Victor Martinez blew out his knee while working out. That is a fact. Never, as in nada, zero, zilch, zippo. You COULD look it up.

Just read that the Phillies traded Wilson Valdez to the Reds for a minor league lefty, Jeremy Horst, who supposedly will vie for a spot in the bullpen. Leaves the infield a little thin, considering the age factor.

Can’t quite understand why the Phils traded Valdez especially for a so so pitcher. Certainly limits the infield.

They must think they can get by with Martinez, but he’s not half the defensive player Valdez is. And it’s not like he’s the 25th man on the roster considering the amount of playing time the backup middle infielder has got in recent years. Pretty important position, particularly on this team.

the “so-so” leftynis a up and coming prospect who played most of the yearnin minors and got called up to pitch in a few games. Good move considering that we have Martinez, Orr, and Freddy to handle 2b and ss, and a guy named wigginton to play 3b is needed. DOn’t forget, Valdez is maiking 900K+ this year. Trim a million here and a million there and you may get a decent 3b at the trade deadline.
My question is who pitches the 19th now?

This post is 10 days old!
Is MLB writer a paying job? If so its a lot easier than having to write a column for a newspaper a couple of times a week.

Todd’s busy writing articles too. This blog is NOT his main job with MLB.com….

it is off season!! during season they work 6/7 day weeks. it would be nice, though, if he would post once a week, at least

Yes, it’s dark and dirty work but someone has to do it!!!!!!!!!

News Alert – Lidge signs with Nats.

The Dodgers’ blog hasn’t been updated since September 28, 2011. Must have something to do with ownership???!?!?!?!?!? Our blogger fled to the Diamondbacks and we’ve been in limbo since. So one week? Count your blessings! Because our blog is dysfunctional, I often visit this site. You people are certainly entertaining………………………………………….nasty, but entertaining.

welcome to Phila, KP

Thanks, FIJ…have to say I’ve been here before, as has phan52 been to Dodgerland, especially in the Broxton-meltdown vs. Phillies years. We were never too happy with his “insights.”

What “insights”?

Just trying to have a little back-and-forth during a competitive 2008 and a big NLCS, kpookie. I thought it would have been welcomed and fun. It started out that way and most of the fans on that board were a friendly bunch. But it’s too bad that some of them were soft and took it a little personal. Kind of like Broxton.
…”into the night”…

Lay off the KC closer!
Seriously, just don’t rub salt in brand new, festering wounds. Maybe wait five minutes…or an hour…or a day. And it was mainly 2009 when Rollins broke the back of the Boys in Blue in Game 4. Enjoy the fruits in Phillyville all you want…but don’t troll misery on someone else’s board. You didn’t like it when your Yankee “pal” came in the zozone spewing sophomoric smack two weeks later, the shoe comfortably on the other foot. None of us here pull on the uniform, so don’t make it such a personal conquest.

kpookie, please don’t even try to compare what went on in the Dodgers board to what that Yankees loser was doing here. I was never profane, nor did I get personal with anybody over there. And I’ve had a pretty decent relationship with the people on that board since then and I was able to regularly talk baseball with them before everybody abandoned it.

Touché. And you’re right, everyone has abandoned the Dodgers’ site…except me and a few others. I know where the rest of the gang has fled, but I just can’t seem to leave ITD. The Dodgers are not that far away from the new dawn, ownership wise, and a funtioning blog. What a crummy nightmare……………………………………………………………….

The last owner has disrpespected one of the storied franchises in MLB and I sincerely hope everything works out for the Dodgers fans.

Heard Charlie on the radio this week talking about the team. Good to hear extensive talk about baseball again. Can’t get here soon enough.
22 days….

This certainly is the place to go to find out breaking news on the Phillies. Dontrelle Willis, the Valdez trade, Juan Pierre and the Pence deal have all gone down since Hamels’ story. But we did get that breaking news on John Bowker.
Thank God for Twitter.

I love my Bleacher Report app alerts on my iphone. Fun way to instantly find out about baseball news.

What’s an iPhone?

that’s just it, Mule. This blog is no longer designed to give breaking news, but rather to allow us phans to have a place to exchange ideas, views, etc. Twitter is where we get our fast breaking news and here is where we come to discuss it

Really? So, you can go 13 days betweeen columns? Where can I get that job?
I don’t think “that’s it” at all.

muleman, this is a blog. Zolecki gets paid for what he does at MLB.com, not here.

Muleman : Thanks for the chuckle. Of course maybe you’re like my husband and a bit old school🙂

Was a bit sorry to see Lidge sign with Nats. I know his recent injuries and velocity downgrade were a concern, but he is a class act through and through. I wish him well in DC

Latest rumor per High Cheese aka philly.com: Oswalt signing a 1-year deal with the Cards.

Presumably because it’s a shorter distance to Arkansas and the backhoe rentals won’t cost as much. He was fairly useless here. Lots of pomp and no circumstance.

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