Reality Check

If you read the quotes from Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Papelbon and Roy Halladay yesterday, the Phillies still believe they can save their season.

Crazier things have happened, but they have dug themselves a huge hole and have left themselves little room for error. They are 36-45, the first time they have been nine games under .500 since July 25, 2006. It is their worst record through the first 81 games in a season since 1997, when they were 23-58. The ’97 Phillies finished 68-94, tying the Cubs for the worst record in the National League. The ’12 Phillies are on pace to finish 72-90, a season after winning 102 games. As awful as this team has been, I just can’t see them losing 90 games. But it’s also hard to picture this team going on enough of a run to make a difference.

Consider:

  • The first-place Nationals are on pace for 94 wins. If the Nationals finish with 94 the Phillies would need to finish 58-23 (.716) just to tie. Barring another miraculous finish like 2007, when the Phillies got white hot and the Mets choked,  it looks like the Phillies’ run of five consecutive NL East championships is over.
  • The Mets and Pirates are tied for the second NL Wild Card with a .538 winning percentage. If one of those teams stays on pace they would finish with 87 wins. The Phillies would need to finish 51-30 (.630) just to tie. That is doable, but they better start winning this week against the Mets and Braves and stop waiting for Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay to come back because nobody knows how effective they will be when they are back.

Another stat for you: The Phillies are 3-10 in Cliff Lee‘s starts. He has a 5.68 ERA in his last eight starts, blowing two three-run leads, one two-run lead and one one-run lead. Imagine if the Phillies were 7-6 in Lee’s starts. They would be 40-41. Imagine if they were 8-5. They would be 41-40. The entire look and feel of this team changes if the Phillies have that record. They look like the sleeping giant in the National League. But right now they look like an aging giant gasping for air.

10 Comments

I say the Phillies have to take at least 2 of 3 from the Mets. And think about it, if we sweep the Mets, we’re only 5.5 games behind them. And the Nationals and Mets are bound to hit mini slumps somewhere along the way. So i’ve got hope!

The Phils are giants? They scored 6 total runs in the Miami series. They’re patsies.

No. He was saying if the Phils were 8-5 in Lee’s games instead of 3-10, they would look like sleeping giants. Jeez.

Embarrassing is what the Philies are. From Rueben Amaro down, its ridiculous. Rueben knew Howard was going to be out until late 2012 at best. Utley 2 87 MIL Rueeben should have been all over that knowing this was similar to the 2011 season injury on the other knee.
Signing Rollins was absolutely rediculous. They shoul have signed Cuddyer or Ramirez to play 3B. Kept Wilson Valdez and let him and Galvis split SS, Polanco should have ben moved over to 2B and they should have resigned Ibanez who could have played 1 B to the same 1 year deal 1.1 MIL he signed with the Yankees.
Since the 2008 Gillick / Wade WS title Rueben has shown everyone that he has ZERO ability to get anything done.
At the trdae dead line in 2009 he could have signed Halladay for the same guys he eventually traded for in the off season and we would have won another WS Title in 2009. His trading of Lee to Seattle for NOBODY and to date none of the players acquired have played an out in the majors.
Our Bull pen is horrible and Rueben`s inability to create balance on this team he has squandered any additional opportunity for a WS Title with Lee, halladay and hamels soon to be departed..
Manuel is a nice guy but a DOPE when it comes to making god decisions during critical stages of games whether it be “small ball”, or defensive changes late in games to pulling SP`s too soon or too late and pinch hitting debacles……Rueben needs to blow this team up and trade everything he can that he knows he can not sign next year and go out in FA and re-set the table for 2013 -2016…….this team is brutal to watch………I used to never miss a game but now will play golf on Sundays and do things during the week and maybe sit down by 8-8:30 PM and see whats up…….Very disappointing………..To all the “Kool-Aid’ drinkers..watch your GM in action the next 30 days and he will show you his lack of ability to get anything done……Reminder Halladays agent contacted the Phils as he wanted to sign and take less $$ because his house is in Tampa 20 mins form spring training facaility and could sleep at home…..In january Lee`s agent contacted the Phils as Cliff`s wife wanted to come back to Philly and he took less $$$…….name anything “big time” that Rueben has accomplished since Gillick and wade left in 2008 ?????

If you think Ruben Amaro is going anywhere, you are delusional. All the team has done until this year was win more games every single year since 2007. I am fairly certain that the vast majority of GM’s would have been happy to have the roster the Phillies assembled from 2008-2011. They were the odds-on favorites to win the WS the last two years and set a team record for wins in 2011. They were teams that were set up to win it all, but if you want guarantees you’re in the wrong game. There is no question that injuries have derailed them this season and the players they were depending on came up small, but Ruben Amaro is not going to lose his job during a season that could very well be an anomaly.
This season is pretty much lost, and Ruben has his work cut out for him in the next 9 months in order to get this team back on track, starting with re-signing Cole Hamels. If you want Ruben Amaro gone, you will have to wait.

Delusional is continuing to Drink The Kool Aid and not face the reality of Amaro`s inability to GM this team after he was handed a WS by Gillick and Wade in 2008…..Respectfully your opinion was mine years ago until I actually looked at his resume of work since gaining full control……..Amaro SUCKS……I agree he will not be fired as the incessed nature of baseball management where you can under perform and continue to cash is standard.
The Odds on favorite under-performing roster since 2008 is reality….Fielding a roster that continued to disappear with offense for the last 4 years is what we have. This is not new. The SF series 2010…how about last years close out game with St Louis ? Halladay pitched a GEM and we lost 1-0……..Do you remember Amaro telling Phillies nation one week after the loss ” next year we are going to change our approach at the plate” remember that ? How about the continued inconsistency of the Bull Pen ? Who takes ownership of that ? Think of all the has beens he signed hoping to have them all come back and have pitching stats of yester year ??? Danny Baes ? Chad Qualls ? Contreras what is he 68 years old ? .I get being a fan and wanting to be positive but i am sorry Amaro is the reason another WS Title was not realized in the following 4 years after Gillick and Wade set the table……Lets see how this under performing GM fairs in the next 30 days prior to the trade dead line ? Reminder >> there is no Ed Wade in Houston to trade with this year……………GO PHILS……….

P.S. from 2009 until last year look at the Phils schedule and count the wins / losses in the NL East…….When you play in a “door mat” division that is what happens…you win lots of games and you look on paper a lot better than reality….problem is when you reach the play-offs …Washington and the Mets and Miami aren’t there….

What will all of you say when they over pay for Hamels and he breaks down every year in Aug.? Remember since Gillick left they lost a lot of their good scouts and managment. Gillick always had people and himself that could pick talents. However he had a couple of mistakes too. Time to change the attitude in the club house. Get rid of Charlie and Dubee. Finally let Sandburg on the field in Philly.

Marty, you completely missed my point. I am not “drinking Kool-Aid” or “wanting to be positive”. I am pointing out the fact that Ruben Amaro is not going anywhere based on what has happened this season.

The team’s record has improved every year (before this year) since he took over, the phans are still piling into CBP in record numbers and the Phillies have the best local TV ratings in MLB. Like I said, you are going to have to wait if you want Ruben Amaro gone. Bottom lines trump everything.

Thanks Phan52…..I understand and I am sure like you we just want this ship to get headed in the right direction long term and get back to the WS……all good stuff. have a great July 4th……GO PHILS >>>>>

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 297 other followers

%d bloggers like this: