Taking A Run at .500

The Phillies swept the first-place Nationals this weekend and have won 7 of their last 10. They are 24-17 (.585) since the All-Star break and 16-10 (.615) since the July 31 trade deadline.

If the Phillies could have played at their post-All-Star break pace the entire season they would be leading the NL Wild Card race.

Of course, they’re not.

Could the Phillies defy the odds and make a run at a Wild Card? Don’t bet on it. Consider for a second the Cardinals hold the second Wild Card spot with a 70-57 (.551) record. They are on pace to win 89 games. If they keep that pace the Phillies would need to finish 28-6 (.824) just to tie. I know, I know, the Rays and Cardinals made up big deficits last season. True, but they only had to chase down one team. The Phillies would have to get cooperation from the Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Pirates and Diamondbacks, the other teams leading them in the Wild Card standings.

I think a better pursuit is finishing the season with a winning record. If the Phillies play at their post-trade deadline pace they will finish 81-81. I think the best hope for the Phillies at this point is maintain their current pace (or maybe play a little bit better), finish the season with a winning record and feel a little better about retooling for next season.

13 Comments

This article’s spot on and I LOVE THAT PHOTO!

Todd, don’t try teaching this bunch about having multiple teams to overcome. The concept is foreign to them.

muleman, you are just one condescending asshole. The bottom line is to win the most games. Is it not? If the Phillies go out and run the table what would their record be at the end? How about 95-67? Do you think that this would get them into the playoffs? The Phillies destiny is in their own hands. Who did the Braves and Red Sox have to leap frog last year? No one except neither made the playoffs. Why? Because at the end of 162 games neither had a record good enough to qualify.

CoolStandings.com updated wild card probabilities. Phillies went from less than 0.1 percent to 0.1 percent.

I think it’s nice to dream about overcoming such impossible odds. Sorta like when you buy a lottery ticket and know that you have a slim to none chance to win, but you do it anyway.

The energy that the team played with over the weekend was nice to see. Something that seems to come and go. Utley had a terrific series and gotta give some props to Mayberry for his 3 RBI game.

I’ll watch the next game with the hope that they win. Then the next, and the next, and the next, until they are eliminated. Until then…..

the problem is simple. lets assume we’re 10 games out of the WC. That means we have to win 10 more games then the top team to take the 1st place. The teams in 3rd, 4th and 5th place are 2.5, 3, 7.5 games out respectively. In order to beat them we have to have that many more wins they they do. However, they play each other as well and both teams can’t lose a game. I can see us finishing in 4th place for the WC having overcome 2 teams, but not all 4 teams we need to to make it.

Anybody who thinks it isn’t possible hasn’t been paying attention in recent years. Teams like the Phillies and Rockies in 2007 or the Cardinals and Rays in 2011. I was around when the Phillies had a 6.5 game lead with 12 games left in 1964 so, it happens. Look up the Giants in 1951 or the Yankees in 1978. It isn’t over till it’s over.

But the team that passed the Phillies in 1964 was IN SECOND PLACE. That’s the point! Geezus.

Wrong. On August 24, 1964 the St. Louis Cardinals were in fourth place and 10 games out. You could look it up.

Geezus, muleman wrong? Come on, Joe, say it ain’t so!

phan52: Yes that’s true, but also you have to look at how many teams are ahead of them for the 2nd playoff spot (there’s quite a few who are playing at least .500 ball) I do love your optimism :-)

karen, I’m just looking forward to tonight’s game (I’ll be in the house). When they win, I’ll check the standings tomorrow to see if they made up any ground. And I’ll continue to do the same until (or IF) they are eliminated.

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