How Many Wins?

Darin Ruf, Erik KratzSo if you had to guess today, how many games will the Phillies win this season?

81, which they won last year?

More? Less?

A few things to consider:

  • How confident are you Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will be healthy and productive? If you are confident, push that number north of 81.
  • The Phillies went 36-24 (.600) the final two months of the 2012 season. That translates to 97 victories over a full season. Now, it’s foolish to say the Phillies will win 97 games next season based solely on a strong finish because there are slow starts, injuries, etc., but if you believe the talent on this team will be there (and possibly be improved) over six months in 2013 push that number past 81.
  • The Phillies blew 13 leads in the eighth inning last season. If setup man Mike Adams is the guy the Phillies hope he is — he had offseason surgery, remember — you figure he holds at least seven of those games, right? If the Phillies had held just seven of those 13 leads last season they would have won 88 games.
  • The Phillies went 10-8 against the Marlins last year. The Marlins should be absolutely dreadful this year. You’ve got to figure the Phillies get an extra win or two from Miami.

Or you could go the other route: this team is another year older, the Phillies haven’t made enough moves to push past the Nationals and Braves, Halladay’s best days are behind him, Utley hasn’t been healthy in years (why should this year be any different?), Howard’s OPS has been in decline since 2009, the corner outfield situation is scary, Carlos Ruiz will miss the first month of the season and who knows how good he will be once he returns, etc.

I’m thinking the Phillies finish in the 86-90 win range. If they finish on the higher end of that they probably make the postseason.

If you don’t think Halladay, Utley and Howard will be healthy and productive, oof, it could be a long season.

But it’s January 9. Who wants to be Debbie Downer today? But it’s at least something fun to think about with pitchers and catchers a little more than a month away.

14 Comments

There are a number of factors that are presently unknown to make any real educated guess. We don’t know how Utley,Howard and Doc are going to be health wise and they are the 3 major components of the team. If they come back healthy I’d think probably about or around 90 give or take. If they get a power right handed bat. 95.

Had a LONG detailed discussion with some friends over the weekend. We “evaluated” every position/player/pitcher and gave our predicitions for 2013. I think a couple of my friends are “homers” coming in close to 100 wins. Couple were more realistic with 80-85…I was the Debbie of the bunch and predicted 73 wins. I know, I know I’m an ass, etc but I just feel that this core is on the decline and there are still a lot of questionmarks including two of the new guys brought in to bolster this lineup and bullpen. I will gladly eat crow, but my gut is saying a slow start and a long summer in Philliesville. :(

Very long year. The right side of the infield is old, made of glass, and unable to adjust their swing to take advantage of the shift. The “leader” at short stop will stop running out balls by the end of April, the new third baseman will only play 100-115 games as he will be injured at some point, the rotation is shallower, the pen is thin, the GM is clueless, the outfield is no better than a combined average (5 players) of .265, 15 HR, and 85 RBI, and the manager is only a genius when he has a stacked lineup and strong pitching.

Okay Ward is totally saving me here! LOL :)

84-87.
Better but not great. Need to move on and get younger.

thought they played 162 games, not 171-how is under .500 better then last year’s 81-81 record? talk about totally clueless

He was projecting 84 to 87 wins, he wasn’t projected their record. You’re the one who is clueless, dipshit.

I like the signings, Adams especially, and am looking forward to Ruf and Brown getting some good playing time. Mayberry was hindered by warming the bench and not getting consecutive at bats, so I’m hoping Ruf and Brown get days in a row in the lineup. Pinch hitting is hard, and platooning is not far from that. It’s hard to get into rhythm.

If Ruf and Brown can play 5/6 days a week each, I believe they can both hit .280/.330/.400 with 20 HRs each. If that happens and Utley and Howard can hit only slightly better than the last few months last year, this team can make the playoffs.

There is a solid rotation and promising bullpen this year, so barring any bad injuries taking anyone out for months at a time, I’m looking forward to October baseball for the Phils!

I would really like to know what the plan is for Ruf…

based on hopefull thinking, wishful thinking, and a roll of the dice: 90-72-win wildcard

My thoughts/feelings/predictions:
Rotation will be solid, Doc & Lee have bounce back seasons, Lanan and Kendrick be solid.
Bullpen will flourish with much young depth, alot of good competition coming into spring training and only the best will make it.
Young, Utley, Rollins, Howard will make a solid Infield and produce closer to thier averages. Only Rollins had a better than average year last year.
The OF will be good with Ruf & Brown stepping up. If they dont – don’t fret, Ruben will make a late spring training or midseason trade to fill the void.
Ruiz and Kratz will be better than league average.

So……….. 100 wins?

I look for about 90 wins this year. Howard’s numbers have been going down but he still is a big rbi guy. Utley will play between 140 and 150 games and be fairly productive and they have more flexibility on the infield this year with Young who can fill in at 2nd to give Utley a break. Young’s “off” year last year still produced around 170 hits, he will probably bat second and be a run scorer rather than be expected to be a run producer. I like the addition of Adams who will be a solid 8th inning guy, remember the surgery was not shoulder or elbow, he will be fine. Doc is the big question but overall I think the rotation will be better. Now for the outfield, Revere is a solid centerfielder defensively and will score significant runs in this lineup. Brown over the last couple of years has had some of the teams best AB’s although his numbers don’t reflect it. He see’s more pitches per AB than most anyone on the team and was starting to show flashes of power last year. He will be a 20-25 HR guy eventually, it could be this year with the right number of AB’s. I think leftfield will be and probably should be the platooned position unless Ruf proves to be the real deal. He showed much promise after his call up and was impressive in his short stay in winter ball and that was in a very strong league.

Bill James has them at 89. I’ll agree with that if Utley and Howard both play 135+ games.

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