Brown’s Crazy Good Numbers

Domonic BrownHey, did you hear?

Domonic Brown has been on fire lately.

Let’s take a look:

  • He has homered in three consecutive games, including two home runs last night against the Red Sox.
  • He has five homers in his last four games.
  • He is the first Phillies player to hit 10 or more homers in a month since Ryan Howard hit 11 in Aug. 2009.
  • He is tied for fifth in baseball with 13 home runs.
  • He is 23rd out of 170 qualifying hitters in baseball with a .519 slugging percentage.
  • He is tied for 28th with 32 RBIs. He might have more, but he lacks opportunities. He has had 121 runners on base during his plate appearances, according to Baseball Prospectus. That ranks 85th in baseball. His Others Batted In percentage (the runners on base he has knocked in) is 15.7 percent, which is 65th out of 188 players with 150 or more plate appearances. That ranks third on the team behind Chase Utley (18.9 percent) and Howard (15.8 percent).
  • Brown was hitting .206 with one double, two home runs, six RBIs and a .623 OPS in 20 games through April 23. He has hit .290 with six doubles, one triple, 11 home runs, 26 RBIs and a .915 OPS in 32 games since. He is tied for third in baseball in homers since April 23. He is tied for seventh in RBIs. His .621 slugging percentage is 10th.
  • The only statistic that gives you pause during this run is the fact Brown has not walked since April 30. If he does not walk in the next two games he would become the first hitter in baseball history to hit nine or more home runs in a single month without a walk. Ernie Banks (Aug. 1968), Tony Armas (Aug. 1988) and Miguel Olivo (June 2009) each hit eight home runs in a month without a walk. Brown’s on-base percentage is just .298, despite the hot streak. But the Phillies will take it. They need somebody to hit with power consistently.

It seems every baseball writer that predicted Brown would hit for power this season is letting everybody know (strangely, nobody ever mentions the wildly awful predictions) so I might as well chime in. I wrote this March 29:  Domonic Brown … has looked incredible this spring. I wrote earlier how Brown’ spring training numbers could indicate a successful 2013. John Dewan said players that show a 200-point increase in their spring training slugging percentage from their career slugging percentage have performed significantly above their career marks in the upcoming season 60 percent of the time. Brown finished the spring with a .675 slugging percentage compared to a .388 career slugging percentage. That is a .287 difference, which puts him in that group. Like I wrote in my story, eight of the 12 Phillies previously on Dewan’s list ended up surpassing their career slugging percentages during the regular season. Of the four players that fell short, two were not everyday players (Eric Bruntlett in 2009 and Pete Orr in ’11) and one got injured midway through the season (Jim Thome in ’05). Maybe Brown will make Dewan 9 for 13. If the over/under on Brown’s slugging percentage is .428 (average slugging percentage for outfielders last season), I’m taking the over. 

From Elias Sports Bureau: Brown hit two home runs, while Ryan Howard and Erik Kratz each homered once in the Phillies’ 4-3 victory over Boston. It was the second time in franchise history the Phillies scored four or more runs in a one-run victory in which all of its scoring came on solo home runs. The first came Sept. 1, 1964, when the Phils opened what would become the most disappointing month in team history with a 4-3 home victory over the Houston Colt 45s. Dick Allen, Johnny Callison, Wes Covington and Frank Thomas provided the scoring in that game.

Enjoy your day.

10 Comments

I projected him to not even hit 10 homers this year and be back in AAA until being moved for nothing at the deadline. Proved me wrong for sure. I appreciate him, Lee and Kratz being the only guys seemingly giving a **** this past week or so…..def the only guys you aren’t dreading their AB’s………

Now if the Phils could just bring up Darin Ruf and see what he could do.

Should have been the DH for the games in boston.

Holy crap ! September 1, 1964 was the date my late father took me, his six-year-old son at the time, to my very first baseball game. Connie Mack Stadium against the Houston Colt .45’s. That game is one of my earliest childhood memories and it sparked a lifelong love of baseball and the Phillies.

And yes, I remember all the home runs that night.

Well, I’ve been keeping this in but I predicted he’d hit 25. I’ve got the evidence if this ever goes to court.

In a season thus far filled with a lot of low points, this has been one of the good stories. I will add Kyle Kendrick’s transformation into a solid starter and Pettibone’s great start. It is good to see the rookies and younger guys step it up. I still think they are going nowhere this season, but there may be hope for this team in the future yet!

It only takes winning the NL Least to get into the playoffs. The Nationals have not lived up to their billing and the Braves have been treading water since their 12-1 start. The sad part is that a strong finish might save Ruins job.

Indeed. I’ve been saying this and will continue to say it. Washington hasn’t played all that well and all the injuries to Atlanta’s bullpen could spell trouble down the stretch. There is no way they are going to get in via the Wild Card (thanks Central for being downright gross this year) but winning the division is certainly not out of the question.

I remember seeing Dom in spring training and seeing how quick and compact his swing was. It reminded me a little of Chase’s. He also kept his hands down and back and could get around on the high inside pitches. In April, he got away from that. Maybe old habits are hard to break. Last night, his first HR was a pitch that he could never have hit even last year. I hope he keeps these swing mechanics and they become a permanent part of his hitting from now on.

with the emergence of dom brown, the left field position has gone from perhaps the weakest position on the team offensively, to by far the strongest. it was not long ago the majority of the posters wanted poor dom to be run out of town, what a difference a few home runs can make. it looks like it may be curtains for babe ruf ever getting a shot at the left field position, unlesss they put dom over in right if they ever decide to bring darin up. personally i would like to see ruf play first base against left handed pitching, kking doesn’t do much against lefties

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