Brown’s Crazy Good Numbers
Domonic Brown has been on fire lately.
Let’s take a look:
- He has homered in three consecutive games, including two home runs last night against the Red Sox.
- He has five homers in his last four games.
- He is the first Phillies player to hit 10 or more homers in a month since Ryan Howard hit 11 in Aug. 2009.
- He is tied for fifth in baseball with 13 home runs.
- He is 23rd out of 170 qualifying hitters in baseball with a .519 slugging percentage.
- He is tied for 28th with 32 RBIs. He might have more, but he lacks opportunities. He has had 121 runners on base during his plate appearances, according to Baseball Prospectus. That ranks 85th in baseball. His Others Batted In percentage (the runners on base he has knocked in) is 15.7 percent, which is 65th out of 188 players with 150 or more plate appearances. That ranks third on the team behind Chase Utley (18.9 percent) and Howard (15.8 percent).
- Brown was hitting .206 with one double, two home runs, six RBIs and a .623 OPS in 20 games through April 23. He has hit .290 with six doubles, one triple, 11 home runs, 26 RBIs and a .915 OPS in 32 games since. He is tied for third in baseball in homers since April 23. He is tied for seventh in RBIs. His .621 slugging percentage is 10th.
- The only statistic that gives you pause during this run is the fact Brown has not walked since April 30. If he does not walk in the next two games he would become the first hitter in baseball history to hit nine or more home runs in a single month without a walk. Ernie Banks (Aug. 1968), Tony Armas (Aug. 1988) and Miguel Olivo (June 2009) each hit eight home runs in a month without a walk. Brown’s on-base percentage is just .298, despite the hot streak. But the Phillies will take it. They need somebody to hit with power consistently.
It seems every baseball writer that predicted Brown would hit for power this season is letting everybody know (strangely, nobody ever mentions the wildly awful predictions) so I might as well chime in. I wrote this March 29: Domonic Brown … has looked incredible this spring. I wrote earlier how Brown’ spring training numbers could indicate a successful 2013. John Dewan said players that show a 200-point increase in their spring training slugging percentage from their career slugging percentage have performed significantly above their career marks in the upcoming season 60 percent of the time. Brown finished the spring with a .675 slugging percentage compared to a .388 career slugging percentage. That is a .287 difference, which puts him in that group. Like I wrote in my story, eight of the 12 Phillies previously on Dewan’s list ended up surpassing their career slugging percentages during the regular season. Of the four players that fell short, two were not everyday players (Eric Bruntlett in 2009 and Pete Orr in ’11) and one got injured midway through the season (Jim Thome in ’05). Maybe Brown will make Dewan 9 for 13. If the over/under on Brown’s slugging percentage is .428 (average slugging percentage for outfielders last season), I’m taking the over.
From Elias Sports Bureau: Brown hit two home runs, while Ryan Howard and Erik Kratz each homered once in the Phillies’ 4-3 victory over Boston. It was the second time in franchise history the Phillies scored four or more runs in a one-run victory in which all of its scoring came on solo home runs. The first came Sept. 1, 1964, when the Phils opened what would become the most disappointing month in team history with a 4-3 home victory over the Houston Colt 45s. Dick Allen, Johnny Callison, Wes Covington and Frank Thomas provided the scoring in that game.
Enjoy your day.