Relax: Let Phillies Prospects Move Slowly
I explained the organization’s rationale in the story, but because fans have such little faith in the Phillies’ front office these days I received plenty of negative reaction to it.
Sure, keep playing the same old guys!
Of course they’re not. The Phillies never promote anybody!
I just don’t understand why they don’t bring up every prospect to learn on the job!
Oh, brother. I could not disagree more. Let me be clear: the Phillies’ front office deserves plenty of criticism for the current state of the team. The Phillies have one of the highest payrolls in baseball, but one of the worst teams. There is no excusing that. So criticize their amateur drafts. Question their player development. Criticize their talent evaluation at the amateur and professional levels. Question their unmovable contracts and personnel decisions. Criticize the coaching staff.
Each of those things is fair.
But if the Phillies are going to do something right this season it is going to be remaining patient with their prospects. They should not rush them to the big leagues because fans are frustrated with the product at Citizens Bank Park.
Here is why:
- This is a lost season. Do not forget Pat Gillick‘s assessment that the Phillies are not going to compete again until 2017 at the earliest. Despite winning two of three this weekend against the Braves, the Phillies are on pace to lose more than 100 games. 2016 might not be much better. So in what world does it make sense to start rushing prospects through the system so they can join a team headed nowhere? If you’re a Phillies fan you should want the Phillies’ prospects to take their time through the Minor League system and be promoted when they are truly ready. Every week or month they remain in the Minor Leagues is another week, month or year they could be helping the team win when it matters again. Think about it: if the Phillies had rushed Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard or Cole Hamels through the system, maybe they’re not all together during their run from 2007-11.
- Service time. In the case of Franco, if he is promoted before May 15 he could become eligible for free agency following the 2020 season. If he is promoted May 15 or later, he does not become eligible until after 2021. Yes, if the Phillies wait just a few weeks they could have Franco for an entire extra season — a season when the results might matter again. Now I am not saying Franco will be promoted later next month or even that he should be promoted later next month. (If the Phillies promote him after the fist week of July they could avoid his Super 2 status in salary arbitration.) I’m only saying I cannot find a single reason to promote Franco right now. To be clear: I’m not advocating the stashing of prospects in the system when they are beyond ready for a big-league promotion. I’m only saying the Phillies must be smart about it. A few extra weeks in Triple-A is not going to kill anybody.
- Development. I hear people say the Phillies don’t promote their prospects when they are young. They offer Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera and Giancarlo Stanton as examples of young players promoted that enjoyed immediate success in the big leagues. Of course, find me a Phillies prospect since Utley or Howard that could come close to the talent of Trout, Harper, Cabrera or Stanton. That player hasn’t existed. But while I have heard of prospects being hurt by being rushed to the big leagues, I have not heard of prospects being irreparably harmed by not being promoted to the big leagues quickly enough. Utley and Howard were not rushed. They turned out fine. If a player is going be successful at the big-league level, an extra month or two (or more) in the Minor Leagues is not going to stop that. So when I asked Phillies assistant general manager Benny Looper yesterday if the Phillies considered any of the organization’s Double-A pitching prospects to make Tuesday’s start in St. Louis over Severino Gonzalez and he said no, I had no problem with that. That extra time in the Minor Leagues might allow one of those pitchers to learn a new pitch or fine tune the ones they have. It might allow them to learn how to overcome their struggles, so when they experience them in the future they have confidence they can overcome them again. Kyle Kendrick got rushed to the big leagues in 2007. He could only throw a sinker. He had success early, but eventually hitters caught up and he had to return to the Minor Leagues before he could pitch in the big leagues again. Knowing the team is not going anywhere this season, wouldn’t it make sense for those prospects to continue to develop at a steady pace so they’re really ready when the time comes?
So while I understand the desire to watch the future this season rather than the past, think about what that might mean. If you want the Phillies to return to glory sooner rather than later it might mean sucking it up in 2015. Will we see Franco this season? I’m sure we will. Will we see Nola? It’s possible. Should they get called up ASAP? Absolutely not. They should be promoted when they are ready to experience success in the big leagues and no earlier. Because right now does not matter. 2017 and beyond does.