Results tagged ‘ Bill James ’

More 2011 Projections

Recently, I wrote about the pitching projections in The Bill James Handbook 2011.

Let’s look today at the hitters:

  1. Jimmy Rollins: .266 with 33 doubles, 5 triples, 15 home runs, 61 RBIs, 87 runs scored and 25 stolen bases (.329 OBP/.424 SLG/.753 OPS). They project Rollins to play in just 136 games. Rollins certainly is hoping to play in much more than that.
  2. Placido Polanco: .295 with 30 doubles, 2 triples, 8 home runs, 62 RBIs and 83 runs scored. (.342/.391/.733).
  3. Chase Utley: .288 with 34 doubles, 2 triples, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, 99 runs scored and 13 stolen bases (.387/.497/.884). They project Utley to play in just 146 games. If he is healthy, we know Charlie Manuel will have him on the field nearly every game.
  4. Ryan Howard: .276 with 30 doubles, 2 triples, 43 home runs, 133 RBIs and 98 runs scored (.368/.547/.915). James’ crew expects Howard to bounce back from a relatively disappointing 2010.
  5. Shane Victorino: .279 with 31 doubles, 7 triples, 16 home runs, 66 RBIs and 97 runs scored (.343/.431/.774). I know Manuel has said he would consider hitting Rollins fifth, but I’m not believing it until I see it. So for the moment, I’ve got Victorino hitting fifth because it breaks up the lefties and gives Francisco some time to develop into an everyday player without the pressure of hitting behind Howard.
  6. Raul Ibanez: .270 with 31 doubles, 2 triples, 20 home runs, 83 RBIs and 75 runs scored (.343/.446/.789).
  7. Ben Francisco: .271 with 21 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs, 38 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 10 stolen bases (.336/.446/.782). James projected these numbers with Francisco playing in 107 games and getting 303 at-bats.
  8. Carlos Ruiz: .270 with 26 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, 51 RBIs and 46 runs scored (.360/.413/.773).

I should have had Domonic Brown in the lineup based on their projections, but I wanted to keep him separate because, well, just look at these numbers. They project he will hit .288 with 33 doubles, 4 triples, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, 84 runs scored and 28 stolen bases in 548 at-bats(.346/.505/.851). Those are some seriously huge numbers for a rookie. If that happens nobody will be worried about right field and Jayson Werth‘s departure anymore, but I’ve got to think those numbers are high. But if they end up accurate, I think everybody is going to be buying a copy of the handbook for their 2012 fantasy baseball leagues.

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Phillies vs. Florida State

Got the Phillies’ lineup for tonight’s exhibition against Florida State:

  1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
  2. Placido Polanco, 3B
  3. Chase Utley, 2B
  4. Ryan Howard, 1B
  5. Jayson Werth, RF
  6. Raul Ibanez, LF
  7. Greg Dobbs, DH
  8. John Mayberry Jr., CF
  9. Carlos Ruiz, C

J.A. Happ is on the mound. Following him is Phillippe Aumont, Yohan Flande, Drew Naylor, Joe Savery, Jesus Sanchez and David Herndon.

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The Bill James Gold Mine 2010 says the Phillies rank 12th in the Majors in young talent.

“The Phillies are above the midpoint in young pitching, with Hamels, Happ and Madson, near the midpoint in the other two areas, young position players and prospects,” James said. “The top five: Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and J.A. Happ. (Howard and Utley are not really “young” players, but players of that quality retain value for a long time, and thus remain counted among the young stars.)”

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