Results tagged ‘ fast start ’

Does 5-5 Mean Anything?

The Phillies were 5-5 before losing last night to the Giants, but can we glean anything from the season’s first 10 games?

ACTA Sports’ Stat of the Week has some interesting numbers:

  • Forty-four teams since 2002 started the season with three or fewer victories in their first 10 games. Only four of them (9 percent) won 90 games, and only five of them (11 percent) made the postseason.
  • Forty-six teams since 2002 started the season with 7 or more wins. Twenty-one of them (46 percent) won 90 games, and 19 of them made the postseason (41 percent).

In other words, teams that start cold typically do not recover. And teams that start hot often stay hot.

So what about those 5-5 teams? There have been 78 teams since 2002 that started the season 5-5. Twenty of them (26 percent) won 90 games. Twenty-three of them (29 percent) made the postseason. I’m sure the Phillies are thinking to themselves, “Yeah, but I bet most of those teams didn’t start the season with their No. 3 and 4 hitters on the DL.” Or they’re just thinking to themselves, “I think we’ve beaten those odds before.”

They have.

They started 2-8 in 2007, 4-6 in 2008 and 4-6 in 2009 and made the postseason each time.

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Jim Salisbury and I co-authored the book The Rotation, which is now available. Check it out here! Here are our upcoming book signings:

  • April 26: Barnes & Noble in Marlton, NJ, 7 p.m.
  • April 29: Citizens Bank Park, 12:30 – 1:30 p.m.
  • May 10: Tredyfrrin Public Library in Stafford, PA, 7:30 p.m.
  • June 2: Citizens Bank Park, 3:00 – 4:00 p.m.

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